BREXIT-- Threat or Opportunity

[dapto10]

It seems so. Although it is a double edged sward. Over a million brits forced to go back home from the EU... Any party or government that will make this kind of decision is doomed. And unlike the 3 millions of EU citizens livin in the UK those over 1 million are voters you know. They have families in the UK, and they all will be furious.

You're absolutely right! What worries me is the fact that (so called) senior politicians are now speculating and 'playing' with the idea, including a UKIP member of the Lords who suggested exactly that... and there are some MPs talking about repealing ECA 1972 which could bring even more uncertainty.

The official Vote Leave statement was something in the lines of "Everyone who's 'legally' in Britain will be allowed to stay'. My question is what does 'legally' actually mean. All EU citizens are here legally right now, it's called Freedom of Movement. So the whole "Everyone legally here would be allowed to stay' thing is nonsense and a rather arrogant speculation.

[Richard W]

The official Vote Leave statement was something in the lines of "Everyone who's 'legally' in Britain will be allowed to stay'. My question is what does 'legally' actually mean. All EU citizens are here legally right now, it's called Freedom of Movement. So the whole "Everyone legally here would be allowed to stay' thing is nonsense and a rather arrogant speculation.

If you followed the EEA route forum you'd know that there are many instances of resident EEA nationals ceasing to be a qualified person or permanent resident. When that happens to those not married to another EEA national, they usually cease to be legal residents. The usual consequence is that someone fails to achieve permanent residence when they expected to.

[Petaltop]

The official Vote Leave statement was something in the lines of "Everyone who's 'legally' in Britain will be allowed to stay'.

I heard them say, every EU citizen working in the UK. That's certainly not every person in the UK under EU rules.

[secret.simon]

There's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip.

If you think about it,
Nobody expected a leave vote,
Then nobody expected David Cameron not to trigger Article 50 immediatly,
Then nobody expected Theresa May to be the lead contender to be Prime Minister
Then nobody expected Boris Johnson to step aside from the leadership elections (there goes that amnesty for illegal migrants);
Then nobody expected the bloodletting in the Labour Party
Then nobody expected the Spanish Inquisition.

Moral of the story: It is unpredictable times. Almost every crystal ball in the UK has cracked under the strain. Accept what is at the moment and do not speculate on what may be, for it almost certainly will not come to pass.

Que sera sera (What will be, will be)

[Casa]

There's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip.

If you think about it,
Nobody expected a leave vote,
Then nobody expected David Cameron not to trigger Article 50 immediatly,
Then nobody expected Theresa May to be the lead contender to be Prime Minister
Then nobody expected Boris Johnson to step aside from the leadership elections (there goes that amnesty for illegal migrants);
Then nobody expected the bloodletting in the Labour Party
Then nobody expected the Spanish Inquisition.

Moral of the story: It is unpredictable times. Almost every crystal ball in the UK has cracked under the strain. Accept what is at the moment and do not speculate on what may be, for it almost certainly will not come to pass.

Que sera sera (What will be, will be)

Brilliant. Spot on!

[vinny]

Then nobody expected Boris Johnson to step aside from the leadership elections (there goes that amnesty for illegal migrants);

Someone did.

[HRH]

There's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip.

If you think about it,
Nobody expected a leave vote,
Then nobody expected David Cameron not to trigger Article 50 immediatly,
Then nobody expected Theresa May to be the lead contender to be Prime Minister
Then nobody expected Boris Johnson to step aside from the leadership elections (there goes that amnesty for illegal migrants);
Then nobody expected the bloodletting in the Labour Party
Then nobody expected the Spanish Inquisition.

Moral of the story: It is unpredictable times. Almost every crystal ball in the UK has cracked under the strain. Accept what is at the moment and do not speculate on what may be, for it almost certainly will not come to pass.

Que sera sera (What will be, will be)

Even Brexit campaigners never expected to win. Perhaps that's why they never formulated any plans.

From what I can see, everything was a sham. Unfortunately things went wrong as no one expected that UK will vote to exit.

- Farage wanted to gain more popularity by portraying himself as a massiah of UK. Since EU immigrants are neither popular amongst the native/white brits nor amongst the naturalised brits. Farage only wanted to exploit people's sentiments by portraying that no one could care more for British interest than he did. Whilst he never wanted to win the campaign, he always wanted to be remembered as the massiah/ father of so called British independence.

- BoJo was confident that people will vote to remain, but he still campaigned. Like Farage, he neither wanted nor expected Britain to exit, all he wanted was to share some of Farage's glory.

- Cameron was very confident that as a sensible & safe choice people would vote to remain. He probably thought that the option of referendum would gain him more popularity as not only would it have shut people like Farage up whilst giving Brits the impression that they are deciding country's fate, but also would have given him the opportunity to shine as a great leader in EU.

Since things went catestrophically wrong neither Cameron nor BoJo have the courage or plans to go further. It's a complete mess & sheer mockery of democracy. How can you possibly make something a campaign agenda which you yourself know is unachievable & worst of all, spitting on people's faces who trusted you & voted for you.

God Save UK.

[secret.simon]

I forgot where I read it, but there is a saying on the lines of;

Men marry, thinking nothing will change. That is his mistake.
Women marry, thinking everything will change. That is hers.

It is same with the EU referendum and Brexit.

Europhiles and the liberal educated metropolitan crowd are horrified at the very thought of even the slightest reduction in the freedom of movement, which is to them an ideal. People from the working classes whose wages have been depressed by the arrival of cheaper labour from the A8 countries would not be happy except with the complete removal of that freedom.

And the actual solution that would be implemented would be a compromise that would make both of them unhappy, for completely opposite reasons.

God Save UK.

Misquoting Heinrich Heine, but he will. That is his job.

[Obie]

On what do you base your assertions that A8 states depress wages?

[Wanderer]

On what do you base your assertions that A8 states depress wages?

Have you not seen the sweat houses where Romanians etc live 20 to a house earning a tenner a day? I have - they live in 8 hour shifts in shared houses, blame the 'employer' sure, bit that's usually some other Romanian.....

And Polish people eat Swans.....

[secret.simon]

On what do you base your assertions that A8 states depress wages?

Fine. Rephrase that part to "People from the working classes who feel their wages have been depressed...".

To an extent, the referendum will already have had an impact, whether Brexit actually occurs or not. EEA citizens are less likely to come here in the near future, as dislike and distrust towards them has already been demonstrated. Those who do come here will be less likely to put down roots.

Whether there will be an impact on non-EEA migrants will be the interesting thing to see. Would they perceive the referendum as a demonstration of distrust towards EU migrants or all migrants?

The referendum may get the immigration down to tens of thousands that the government could not achieve.

[Manchester171]

Among the 3 millions of EU citizens who are living in UK, how many have kept track of 5 years worth of bank statements, bills, P60...etc? How many can pass life in UK test? How many had registered in WRS in his first year of work in UK since 2004? How many have had comprehensive medical insurance if he/she was unemployed? How many would manage around £1500 cost of English tests, PR and CS applications? As these are the required documents for PR and CS. Probably, UK will allow all EU citizens in UK to APPLY for ILR or PR in the near future. Why? UK will not ask EU citizens to leave. Because they look at this situation as a business opportunity to generate money. Assume 1 million would be ready to apply with all documents x £1500= £1.5 Billions. However, they are now back in control who may enter UK in the future and from which country. For example, UK would have a separate deals with each 27 EU countries based on their citizens' contribution in UK and how many British citizens are living in these 27 countries. A good deal with freedom of movement with Spain and France where mainly British citizens are living there. Another deal with A8 AND A2 countries without free movement as few British citizens who are living there. I assume this how UK will shape their policy with EU. Each country will be treated based on their importance in UK economy.

[secret.simon]

However, they are now back in control who may enter UK in the future and from which country. For example, UK would have a separate deals with each 27 EU countries based on their citizens' contribution in UK and how many British citizens are living in these 27 countries. A good deal with freedom of movement with Spain and France where mainly British citizens are living there. Another deal with A8 AND A2 countries without free movement as few British citizens who are living there. I assume this how UK will shape their policy with EU. Each country will be treated based on their importance in UK economy.

I doubt the EU will allow that. It is currently threatening to impose visa restrictions on US and Canadian visitors because the US imposes visa requirements on five countries in the EU (Poland, Romania, Bulgaria, Cyprus and Croatia) and Canada does so for Romanian and Bulgarian citizens.

EU Commission delays decision on Canada, U.S. visas to July 12

Brussels considers end to visa free travel to EU for US visitors

If the EU is so sensitive about differential visa requirements for visitor visas, imagine how it would feel about work and long stay visas.

Among the 3 millions of EU citizens who are living in UK, how many have kept track of 5 years worth of bank statements, bills, P60...etc? How many can pass life in UK test? How many had registered in WRS in his first year of work in UK since 2004? How many have had comprehensive medical insurance if he/she was unemployed? How many would manage around £1500 cost of English tests, PR and CS applications? As these are the required documents for PR and CS. Probably, UK will allow all EU citizens in UK to APPLY for ILR or PR in the near future. Why? UK will not ask EU citizens to leave. Because they look at this situation as a business opportunity to generate money. Assume 1 million would be ready to apply with all documents x £1500= £1.5 Billions.

Welcome to the world of non-EEA migration, where every document is important, nothing is assumed and your stay in the UK is at the grant of the Home office, not a right.

[stefanvl]

I find it strange that a lot of Brits are only interested in how the UK will be affected and don't seem to be at all interested in how it will affect the rest of the EU or even the world. How can you be part of an organisation with the word UNION in its title for so long when all you want is complete sovereignty. It maybe that the problems the EU has right now is just that, the fact that there are some countries who just want the benefits of the EU. We should all want a closer union and the ones who don't should leave.

I don't believe the UK will on its own be able to fight poverty and unemployment to an extent that justifies a Brexit. But most likely in the end they will still find a way to blame the EU for it all. Most of the brexit voters are probably not motivated by racisme, they were made to believe that foreigners are taking their jobs and are the cause of all thats going wrong in the UK. Politicians don't like taking responsibility.

I have worked for a company in the UK, I was recruited by them and wasn't really looking for work in the UK. I went, worked, paid taxes and after a year I left. I would now not do that anymore, apart from the insecurity of not knowing what will happen after Brexit, I just wouldn't feel comfortable living among a people who obviously don't want me there.

It seems in the future a lot more Brits will be doing jobs they really don't want to do,or the UK will have to get rid of the points system for non-eu immigrants. The people who voted Brexit will be forced to do those jobs or forced to deal with more non-eu immigrants. So it seems they will still loose out. I am sure Boris,Gove, Farage etc.. will be just fine.

The EU will hopefully not let the UK cherry pick anything. So many UK Brexit politicians are saying the EU needs the UK to be in the common market, we are their biggest customers. Well that may be true if u ask the politicians, but what if they ask the EU citizens... What if we got a vote on that right now. If the UK had not had a referendum there would never have been a Brexit, if the EU gave the people a referendum on the deal, the UK would never get a deal. Of course the EU would never do that because it is not a very smart thing to do.

But its done now and it will happen. Lets see what the future holds for us all.

[Obie]

Germany discuss the possibility of Granting Citizenship to Brits living in Germany..

This policy epitomises basic human empathy and decency.

At least brits living in Germany can hope for a secured future.

[Manchester171]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 16971.html

Theresa May warns future of EU citizens living in the UK is uncertain.

[Obie]

Theresa May accused of treating EU migrants as a pawn in Brexit talks.

[Obie]

Basically, Lord Pearson of Rannoch, who speaks for UKIP and was formerly leader of that party, basically suggested holding 3 million EU nationals as hostage in negotiations with the EU. It did not go down well with anyone else.

[Richard W]

Basically, Lord Pearson of Rannoch, who speaks for UKIP and was formerly leader of that party, basically suggested holding 3 million EU nationals as hostage in negotiations with the EU. It did not go down well with anyone else.

It was only with respect to the status of one another's nationals. For example, if the UK decides to continue the status of permanent residence for EEA nationals, then it should also be continued for UK nationals in the EEA. To be precise, the UK should not allow permanent residence to continue for EEA nationals in the UK if Spain will expel its British permanent residents. This is one reason that no honest promise can be made now.

That's a far cry from trading continued residence for a trade concession.

[Skinny26]

Has anyone else read this article: http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 17346.html

[ohara]

If the government intends to negotiate access to the single market after Brexit, nobody will be getting deported

[secret.simon]

Perhaps this post would be more relevant merged into this thread?

Let's keep this forum for discussion of individual cases and the forum for discussion of the EU Referendum for broader discussions of the outcome of the Referendum.

[Obie]

Perhaps this post would be more relevant merged into this thread?

Let's keep this forum for discussion of individual cases and the forum for discussion of the EU Referendum for broader discussions of the outcome of the Referendum.

I am pleased that you now agree to this course.

[secret.simon]

I am pleased that you now agree to this course.

I always did, since this forum was created. I only discussed Brexit in the other forum if it was relevant to the specific individual case being discussed.

I am gratified that we are in agreement

[HRH]

A must watch video of Nigel Farage stating the reason behind his so called revolution & resignation.



He f***ed up a perfectly running system to fulfil a dream which neither means anything for the people/country nor even for those idiots who blindly & deafly followed another blind & deaf (who couldn't see & hear anything except for his dream & his own voice).
Today after leaving the entire nation, people, EU & global economy in such a mess; this man has an audacity to walk away from the entire scene stating that he wants his life back. What about us?

People like him have misguided & misled everyone whilst letting everyone down.