Re: Restricted COS decisions for August 2015

I think points will be 35-36 for august and back to 32 for September because looking at all previous months there aren't many people that even apply on the lower scale! Yes let's definitely remain positive!!

I also take serious umbrage with "various immigration lawyers" since that's the only piece I've seen suggest 50 points.

The truth is, we simply won't know until next Tuesday.

My calculation and prediction, 50+ -> safe, 45 -> very like to be the passing score again for August, 40 -> very unlikely but not impossible, below 40 -> not possible!

Based on the records during June 2014 - June 2015, in the worst case (by apply the maximum number of applications of each point) there would be 1856 applications with 45+ point. So in the worst case the passing score would hit 50 points again. But it is likely to be the 45 points again.

If we use Feb - Jun average, there would be 1332 applications with 45+. However, we need to consider a scenario that UKVI received much more applications for recent months. We can guessing, there are 20% more applications, then applications with 45+ would be 1598.

That's why it is unlikely to have a 40 passing score (but not impossible).

This model have some uncertainty factors: 1. The model ignored the scenario that employer could raise salary to reapply with a higher score. Under such scenario there would be more people for both 45 and 50 point. If we consider that 30% applications are reapplied from 40 to 45, 20% applications are raised from 45-50: Based on previous calculation the applications with 45+ can hit 1835+.

That's my calculation, I have 45 points but it is not a safe points for August.

Well you don't know that the maximum number of applications will be receieved and august/September jsnt a peak time for hiring but we won't know until next week so best to think positively for now!

I have applied for RCoS this month with 45 points. Employer has been contacted by HO for contract documents.
Anyone else got such news?

Edit: Sorry, I'm just on edge right now.

I'm incredibly worried about this and astounded by how unfair it is. I was the only person to apply for my job - even with the job posted on JobsCentre Plus and a recruiter searching for candidates, I was the only person to put up my hand.

So the excuse I'm 'stealing' a British citizen's job is utter trash. The job was advertised. Nobody but me wanted it. And yet, I'm staring down the barrel of my life ruined, because some douchebag in Kent doesn't like hearing Polish on the train.

I've got to wonder why I'm so set on living in a country that's making it clear it doesn't want my expertise. Or spending. Or taxes.

And I'm really, really annoyed with people posting specious models and claiming they can predict what the cut off will be. None of you predicted it would fall from 50 to 45 last month - not a single one of you. All you're doing is causing people to freak out. Utterly unhelpful. Stop it.

emjayo wrote:Edit: Sorry, I'm just on edge right now.

I'm incredibly worried about this and astounded by how unfair it is. I was the only person to apply for my job - even with the job posted on JobsCentre Plus and a recruiter searching for candidates, I was the only person to put up my hand.

So the excuse I'm 'stealing' a British citizen's job is utter trash. The job was advertised. Nobody but me wanted it. And yet, I'm staring down the barrel of my life ruined, because some douchebag in Kent doesn't like hearing Polish on the train.

I've got to wonder why I'm so set on living in a country that's making it clear it doesn't want my expertise. Or spending. Or taxes.

And I'm really, really annoyed with people posting specious models and claiming they can predict what the cut off will be. None of you predicted it would fall from 50 to 45 last month - not a single one of you. All you're doing is causing people to freak out. Utterly unhelpful. Stop it.

Well said emjayo. Same case here. based on my experience, the resumes the employer get in Jobscenterplus is completely irrelevant and no where nearer to the job spec. I think people apply in jobcenterplus to prove the council that they have applied these many jobs. Secondly, as you rightly said, there is very less interest for jobs that are posted in other paid job search websites.

You are also correct that the predictions are just to freak out people and it does not server any purpose until we get the official announcements.

emjayo wrote:Edit: Sorry, I'm just on edge right now.

I'm incredibly worried about this and astounded by how unfair it is. I was the only person to apply for my job - even with the job posted on JobsCentre Plus and a recruiter searching for candidates, I was the only person to put up my hand.

So the excuse I'm 'stealing' a British citizen's job is utter trash. The job was advertised. Nobody but me wanted it. And yet, I'm staring down the barrel of my life ruined, because some douchebag in Kent doesn't like hearing Polish on the train.

I've got to wonder why I'm so set on living in a country that's making it clear it doesn't want my expertise. Or spending. Or taxes.

And I'm really, really annoyed with people posting specious models and claiming they can predict what the cut off will be. None of you predicted it would fall from 50 to 45 last month - not a single one of you. All you're doing is causing people to freak out. Utterly unhelpful. Stop it.

Please calm down. You are not the only person who is annoyed with the situation.

I wouldn't agree with your opinion about people making predictions though, because honestly it is not too hard to get close with enough historical data. I have seen people predicted 45 for last month, and as a matter of fact I myself predicted it to be 45 (go to the July allocation post and you will see).

There are 798 people with a score lower than 40 in June and maybe 500 in July, so this is a problem for over 1000 people for now. We do need collective wisdom and resource to better understand the situation, like someone here posted about the detailed figure for RCoS and scores in past 12 months, which is valuable and precious. We do need to know better about our options and possibilities, so that we can avoid wasting our time for a distant hope or at least make better use of our time.

Instead of being annoyed with those predictions, please take it easy and if possible have a look of them. Use your own judgement to decide whether to buy or not their logic. I really feel this is better than just blindly and furiously waiting.

shannon5g wrote:

emjayo wrote:Edit: Sorry, I'm just on edge right now.

I'm incredibly worried about this and astounded by how unfair it is. I was the only person to apply for my job - even with the job posted on JobsCentre Plus and a recruiter searching for candidates, I was the only person to put up my hand.

So the excuse I'm 'stealing' a British citizen's job is utter trash. The job was advertised. Nobody but me wanted it. And yet, I'm staring down the barrel of my life ruined, because some douchebag in Kent doesn't like hearing Polish on the train.

I've got to wonder why I'm so set on living in a country that's making it clear it doesn't want my expertise. Or spending. Or taxes.

And I'm really, really annoyed with people posting specious models and claiming they can predict what the cut off will be. None of you predicted it would fall from 50 to 45 last month - not a single one of you. All you're doing is causing people to freak out. Utterly unhelpful. Stop it.

Please calm down. You are not the only person who is annoyed with the situation.

I wouldn't agree with your opinion about people making predictions though, because honestly it is not too hard to get close with enough historical data. I have seen people predicted 45 for last month, and as a matter of fact I myself predicted it to be 45 (go to the July allocation post and you will see).

There are 798 people with a score lower than 40 in June and maybe 500 in July, so this is a problem for over 1000 people for now. We do need collective wisdom and resource to better understand the situation, like someone here posted about the detailed figure for RCoS and scores in past 12 months, which is valuable and precious. We do need to know better about our options and possibilities, so that we can avoid wasting our time for a distant hope or at least make better use of our time.

Instead of being annoyed with those predictions, please take it easy and if possible have a look of them. Use your own judgement to decide whether to buy or not their logic. I really feel this is better than just blindly and furiously waiting.

You're right - I was upset and launched into a rant. I'm in a fortunate position in that 40 points isn't beyond the realm of possibility for August. Just scared about how it's going to play out, losing sleep over it. "Annoyed" is an understatement.

I found this helpful in understanding how it all works: http://migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/co ... -tight-cap

the reason for being on this forum is to help facilitate discussion regarding our and other's personal circumstances. the truth is we can't be 100% certain without the figures, but it is useful to have the historical data that has been provided. it is true that speculating sometimes may not be helpful, but we have to face the reality that a lot of people are going to be refused entry at least for the near foreseeable future. this is the last time my employer will apply for me as I am going to be joining a graduate programme and I am on 40 points (sadly missed the cutoff for the next bracket by £250). I don't feel safe on 40 points, just hoping for some kind of miracle.

Can someone tell me if the last date for an application is the 5th of every month ?

I need to know if I can still apply today.


Thanks in advance

Can one of you guys met me know if today is the last date for applying after an RLMT for the past 28 days if I were to expect a decision by this month ? Am a bit desperate to find this info as time is running out.

Thank you

Yes prashs,

5th is the last date for submiting an application to be reviewed during the same month's allocation meeting.

You can go ahead with your application.
Good Luck.

Hi Rabiya,

Thanks a lot.!

Applying with 45 points.Fingers crossed!

1 day to go.... Is anyone waiting at 36 points??

Hi,

Who else is waiting with 40 points?
Hopefully(crossing my fingers) will get RCoS this time....

40 points here. Fingers crossed.

Monika_tyagi wrote:Hi,

Who else is waiting with 40 points?
Hopefully(crossing my fingers) will get RCoS this time....

Hi, waiting with 40 points too. So nervous.

tier2sp wrote:

Monika_tyagi wrote:Hi,

Who else is waiting with 40 points?
Hopefully(crossing my fingers) will get RCoS this time....

Hi, waiting with 40 points too. So nervous.

Hi tier2sp

Same here... crossing my fingers...
Hopefully we will get this time.

Monika_tyagi wrote:

tier2sp wrote:

Monika_tyagi wrote:Hi,

Who else is waiting with 40 points?
Hopefully(crossing my fingers) will get RCoS this time....

Hi, waiting with 40 points too. So nervous.

Hi tier2sp

Same here... crossing my fingers...
Hopefully we will get this time.

40 points here too!
fingers and toes crossed!!!

Hi Can anyone help me please.. My points was 45 when my employer applied for july cos and as the cos was also granted at 45 points but since my employed missed out certain details and also failed to reply to the mail sent by ukba asking those details my application got rejected.. when they contacted ukba they were told to apply again which my employer now did.. I wanted to know will i be granted cos at my old application points since my application last time was rejected only because of missing details or will the new points for august month come into picture again with my application

vicahuja wrote:Hi Can anyone help me please.. My points was 40 when my employer applied for july cos and as the cos was also granted at 40 points but since my employed missed out certain details and also failed to reply to the mail sent by ukba asking those details my application got rejected.. when they contacted ukba they were told to apply again which my employer now did.. I wanted to know will i be granted cos at my old application points since my application last time was rejected only because of missing details or will the new points for august month come into picture again with my application

How come you got rcos in july at 40 points ? Min points for july were 45.
Hopefully you ll get it in august

No i had 45 only

Hi Guys,

I have just received my Tier 2 today and I am very thrilled. I came to this forum after the Rcos situation in June and I know how anxious it was. I started paying attention to the immigration news/updates since.

I hope the historical data I posted here was somewhat useful.

I wish those waiting for Rcos best of luck. I will keep my fingers crossed for you guys and hope to see you guys in the UK someday.

GettingTier2 wrote:Hi Guys,

I have just received my Tier 2 today and I am very thrilled. I came to this forum after the Rcos situation in June and I know how anxious it was. I started paying attention to the immigration news/updates since.

I hope the historical data I posted here was somewhat useful.

I wish those waiting for Rcos best of luck. I will keep my fingers crossed for you guys and hope to see you guys in the UK someday.

Awesome news! Big congratulations.

You had 40 points, if I remember correctly?