Unmarried EU partner

Hi
I am living with my EU(Italian) partner more then two years now I am waiting baby as my partner is pregnant we have 100% proof that we are genuine with together we also have all documents
Council tax (both name 2years)
Tenancy agreement (both name)
TV license (her name)
Water bill (my name)
Gas bill (my name)
But I have done toeic in 2012 and got student visa 2nd extension on the basis of toeic
Before my visa expired I have applied another extension but home office came my home with toeic arrest warrant luckily I was not at home so after that I received libel to remove letter as deciption
My question is that I am thinking to apply unmarried EU visa how many chance I have to get visa
I will be very thankful

Slightly complex, as OFM have no automatic right of residence.

When is the baby due?

The chances of success will be improved after the baby is born.

Thank you for Your kind replay my baby is due on October this year
And could you also tell me that if I apply unmarried EU visa will home office come to my house again to arrest me .?as I don't want give any stress to my partner as she is pregnant many thnx in advance