UK EU referendum confirmed for summer 2016

[khanmzk]

kindly share your views

[khanmzk]

Sorry moderators i just forgot to post this topic in european forum.if i done something wrong kindly let me know..

many thanks

[Casa]

Don't worry. I'll move it for you.

[khanmzk]

Thanks casa.......

[secret.simon]

Hardly news. We had known for a very long time that 2017 would be a very bad year to have an EU referendum because there would be elections in both France and Germany in that year. The national leaders would have less room to negotiate in the runup to their own elections.

Mama Merkel will likely have some backlash due to the influx of Syrian refugees, but I think the Germans are extremely loathe to ditch their leaders. Look at the careers of Herr Adenaeur and Kohl.

In France, M. Hollande already had the lowest rating of any French president of the Fifth Republic before the Paris attacks this year. I expect President Sarkozy back in the Elysee by the end of 2017.

Given the situation in continental Europe, 2016 would be the best time to get Europe out of the way. Also, it would be good to get the split over Europe over with in the Conservative Party early, so that they can focus on the 2020 elections, not that have much to fear with the Labour Party in utter disarray.

The prediction is for the referendum to take place in summer 2016, after the Scottish Parliament elections, so that the lay of the land oop north is clear.

The question will really be; will Scotland "want to break free" if England votes to leave? And what about Northern Ireland's delicate balance of power? Would Northern Ireland retain a special relationship with the EU because of its southern neighbour?

[ohara]

Has anything been said of what will happen to EEA citizens living in the UK? I know the UK won't immediately exit; it will take at least two years. But I read the UKIP manifesto before the general election and it said there would be a five year moratorium on migrants before they would basically be kicked out.

I have PR now, and have lived in the UK for my whole life but I am not British. I plan to naturalise, and my application will be in WELL in time for any potential Brexit. But if the worst happens and I am refused, does that mean a have to leave?

[khanmzk]

@ohara the fact of the matter is a brexit will really effect the people on benefits from EU countries
EU have already given a option to david cameron to stop the benefits to the EU citizens if his government
thinks that they are taking advantage of the welfare system of UK they called it "emergency Break"
but what i think personally david cameron is been pushed to the wall.And the backbenchers in the commons
have a very old conservative margaret thatcher kind of thinking they will be really pushing it hard on him
to give his best to make a fragile relationship with EU which they already did.and the outcome will be very
dramatic becuase the only way to makes changes in eu treaties is to threat them with leaving.so even UK
leaves EU there are chances they will rethink about there membership twice before there final answer..


LONG LIVE THE QUEEN.........................................LOL

[Hamza2013]

All,

In summary there will be no affect on EU directive with the exit of UK for at least 2 years?

As I understand the emphasise is on benefits of EU citizens in UK, which will be stopped if UK exits EU,

[khanmzk]

what UK thinks have a look at statistics

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/u ... ivided.pdf

Thats only a assumption.

[secret.simon]

@ohara the fact of the matter is a brexit will really effect the people on benefits from EU countries

Not quite correct. One of the four planks of David Cameron's renegotiation is cutting benefits of EU migrants for the first four years in the UK. But the reason for that plank is to reduce the pull factor for EU migrants to the UK.

Currently, if an EU migrant comes to the UK and is working, he is eligible for all in-work benefits from Day One, unlike a non-EEA migrant, who only becomes eligible for in-work benefits from when s/he gets ILR (typically after five to ten years).

So, what David Cameron is doing trying to reduce the status of EEA migrants to just slightly better than than of non-EEA migrants (four years instead of five years) and he is hoping that that reduces the flow of migrants to the UK from the EEA without any further action.

Of course, his Eurosceptic backbenchers have pointed out that with the minimum wage going up, it is still better to work in the UK than in the rest of the EEA.

EU have already given a option to david cameron to stop the benefits to the EU citizens if his government thinks that they are taking advantage of the welfare system of UK they called it "emergency Break"

Again, not completely accurate. The purported "emergency brake" will only be activated if the EU authorities think that the UK infrastructure (such as housing, schools, etc) can not cope with the strains of immigration. So, essentially, the UK government will have to request and prove to the EU authorities that the UK infrastructure is at breaking point for Brussels, not London, to activate the emergency brake.

That is not going to win a lot of votes around in the UK.

But if the worst happens and I am refused, does that mean a have to leave?

If there is a vote to leave, the government will likely put in place transitional arrangements for people who are already in the country on EEA permits, etc. However, crucially, such arrangements will be at the grant of the UK government and not that of the EU authorities.

what UK thinks have a look at statistics

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/wp-content/u ... ivided.pdf

Thank you for the link. I would strongly suggest a read. The study is by Prof. John Curtice, who was the only person to get the results of the last election accurately. If you all remember the shock exit polls released at 10PM on the day of the election that stated for the first time that the Conservatives would have a majority, they were conducted by him. I would rate his studies higher than most in the field of psephology.

LONG LIVE THE QUEEN

Long may she reign, Amen. The Queen has seen it all before. With the exception of India, the rest of the British Empire was dismembered in her reign. Indeed, at her Coronation, she took the oath of being Queen of Pakistan, Ceylon and South Africa in addition to the Old Commonwealth and the rest of the British Empire. She has seen the UK's membership of the then-EEC being rejected by De Gaulle twice, finally joining in 1973, having the first referendum in 1975, the Maastricht treaty tearing the government apart in 1992 and these current fractious negotiations. I pray she gives the Prime Minister sagacious advice. And I hope he takes it.

[ohara]

But if the worst happens and I am refused, does that mean a have to leave?

If there is a vote to leave, the government will likely put in place transitional arrangements for people who are already in the country on EEA permits, etc. However, crucially, such arrangements will be at the grant of the UK government and not that of the EU authorities.

This is what worries me. My mother was British and I have spent over 24 of my 26 years in the UK. I grew up here and have no ties to my country of origin and I speak none of the language. I don't claim any benefits, and since finishing education here I have always worked full time in a good job.

Being forced to leave, or having to apply for a visa to live/work in the country that I have considered home for all of my life, would basically ruin me.

[chaoclive]

This is what worries me. My mother was British and I have spent over 24 of my 26 years in the UK. I grew up here and have no ties to my country of origin and I speak none of the language. I don't claim any benefits, and since finishing education here I have always worked full time in a good job.

Surely you would have PR by now? I remember reading some of your other posts in the past and you also said that you have been working in the UK since leaving college/uni. If you still have proof of this then you would be able to apply for a document certifying your PR on the basis of being a 'worker' and then, after you get your confirmation of PR document, you could apply for citizenship of you like (I know that Finnish citizens who acquire a new citizenship as an adult may lose Finnish citizenship: you might want to check that out). This would be more than enough to allow you to continue to reside in the UK no matter what happens in the referendum.

[ohara]

That is exactly my plan. I'm only planning for the worst case scenario - if my naturalisation application is rejected.

From 2003 Finland has allowed multiple citizenship:

A new Finnish Nationality Act permitting dual (and multiple) nationality more broadly than before came into force on June 1, 2003.
A Finn does not forfeit Finnish citizenship on gaining citizenship of another country. Similarly, foreigners who gain Finnish citizenship no longer need to give up their earlier citizenship.
A Finn may keep Finnish citizenship if dual nationality is accepted in the country whose citizenship he or she gains. Likewise, foreigners can keep their earlier citizenship if the law in that country does not prevent them from gaining Finnish citizenship too.

So I think I'll be OK.

[chaoclive]

That is exactly my plan. I'm only planning for the worst case scenario - if my naturalisation application is rejected.

From 2003 Finland has allowed multiple citizenship:

A new Finnish Nationality Act permitting dual (and multiple) nationality more broadly than before came into force on June 1, 2003.
A Finn does not forfeit Finnish citizenship on gaining citizenship of another country. Similarly, foreigners who gain Finnish citizenship no longer need to give up their earlier citizenship.
A Finn may keep Finnish citizenship if dual nationality is accepted in the country whose citizenship he or she gains. Likewise, foreigners can keep their earlier citizenship if the law in that country does not prevent them from gaining Finnish citizenship too.

So I think I'll be OK.

That should be fine then. I didn't realize that you have already put in an application for BC. I would be applying for my confirmation of PR right now, it's only £65 and you are definitely qualified!

I'm not too worried about all this by myself (I'm Irish) but I just hope that nothing will happen before my partner can get his Irish passport sorted out (he only becomes eligible in August 2017)!

[ohara]

Haven't applied for BC yet, waiting for the confirmation of PR to come through (applied earlier this month). As soon as that's here I can bang in the BC application!

[khanmzk]

My personal thinking is that UK will vote to leave the EU.But thats only to warn EU to reform the EU itself
which will effect all the migrants coming into EU not only UK.

[LilyLalilu]

Even if they vote to leave, I do not think that they'd ever attempt to send people back who are already here (especially not those who have already acquired PR). Would be way to costly and would probably also leave the government open to lawsuits on the basis of legitimate expectation...
But then again, no one knows what exactly would happen as there is no precedent for this..
My bets are on a referendum in September 2016; may as well be a vote to leave, I no longer trust the electorate after the poor choices they made in the last General Election

[secret.simon]

My bets are on a referendum in September 2016;

I think June or July 2016 is more likely. After the Scottish and Welsh elections are out of the way, but before the country jets off on its summer holidays in (ironically) Europe.

I no longer trust the electorate after the poor choices they made in the last General Election

For those with a theological bent of mind, Vox populi vox dei-the voice of the people is the voice of God.

would probably also leave the government open to lawsuits on the basis of legitimate expectation

To the best of my knowledge, legitimate expectations only applies to changes in law made by statutory instruments/delegated legislation, like changes to the Immigration Rules. But I doubt the courts will look at voiding primary legislation (Acts of Parliament) on this basis. Dicey's theory of parliamentary sovereignty holds (just) and would be strengthened by a vote to leave the EU.

My mother was British and I have spent over 24 of my 26 years in the UK. I grew up here and have no ties to my country of origin and I speak none of the language.

I would imagine that there are sufficient grounds to allow you to stay and possibly get ILR (the non-EEA equivalent of PR) under the Immigration Rules as well. The only difference is, it is not automatic. I do not think you have anything to fear.

[logical_1]

So would it be wise to do a SS in 2016 if the referendum takes place in June/July or even autumn?
Any setbacks/suggestions??

[Casa]

The referendum is only a vote giving opinions. The changes won't be immediate, if there are any at all.

[logical_1]

The referendum is only a vote giving opinions. The changes won't be immediate, if there are any at all.

So in the event of an exit,when would the treaties cease to be applicable?

[Casa]

The referendum is only a vote giving opinions. The changes won't be immediate, if there are any at all.

So in the event of an exit,when would the treaties cease to be applicable?

Good old Wikipedia explains:
"The Treaties would cease to be applicable to that State from the date of the agreement or, failing that, within two years of the notification unless the State and the Council both agree to extend this period"

[secret.simon]

There could be changes to the Treaties even in the absence of a vote to leave the EU.

It is not improbable that a part of a successful renegotiation before the referendum is a protocol modifying the EU Treaties giving the UK a derogation from specific provisions of EU immigration laws. In other words, the UK could be allowed to excuse itself from EU immigration laws even before the referendum.

So, don't assume that changes will take place only after the referendum. It could happen before.

And if the referendum led to a vote for Brexit, the UK government could potentially suspend EU immigration laws with immediate effect. After all, the highest sanction that the EU could impose would be...to throw the country out of the EU, which is what the UK will have indicated it wants anyway.

If you have plans that involve EU immigration laws, such as bringing people in through the Surinder Singh route, I would suggest actioning those plans as soon as possible.

This report from the House of Lords gives an idea of the direction of travel as regards the timing of the referendum. The government can of course call the referendum at any time it sees fit, now that the bill authorising it passed both Houses of Parliament on 17th December.

[khanmzk]

@sceret.simon i agree with all of your logic with respect.and i also agree with the fact that refrendum
outcome is sure and short which is brexit.and all the logic and brains working behind the scene want UK to leave EU so is the majority of the MPS and people under there influence.But the main GOAL is a reformed EU not a alone and left out UK.And the only way to reform the EU is by leaving it.if the brexit happend then you will see diffrence in all the EU members who were apposing david camerons demands mainly POLISH and some other EU countries.if them countries who are apposing the 4 year ban on in work benifit demands.will run back
to the UK to keep it as a huge work market rather then taking it as there Grannies home.kindly donot take me as a eurosceptic i myself is a victm of torries Price tag for love 18600 annual income rule.my wife is spending her life with me in pakistan for last 2 years becuase she cannot sponser me becuase of such inhumanity of the torries and there supporters policies.my wife is in self exile becuase of such situation.we are also planning for surinder singh route know but what if the rules changed i will suffer with thosands of the other people who misses there families and loved ones becuase of such narrow and pathetic thinking.of taking benifits from government and also all the NON-EU citizens are called economic migrants to demorolize them from working in UK which i think is raceism.as far as surinder singh route is concern i am sure if they close that way to completely make UK independent from EU free movement rule.it will lead to scotish referendum scots think diffrent from an average English they still think they are diffrent and independent look at them they have diffrent currecny diffrent way of life diffrent transport system diffrent rules for NHS diffrent food and list goes on and on.If UK want to leave EU maybe they will decide by next year but within 2 years or maximum by 2020 scotland will be free independent and will be the part of EU.
the result will be same what ireland did in 2005.48% scotish men and women think to leave UK which is very fragile relationship.and most importantly scotland is one of the richest european countries they can stand on there feet and boost there economy without UK easily.in total coming up few years will totaly change europe aswell as UK...

@secert.simion in last i want to ask a question from you what do you think if UK leaves EU.will they loose
there CH Membership aswell becuase the free movement rule applies to CH members aswell.

[mkhan2525]

It seems October 2016 is likely to be the date for the referendum given the fact that House of Lords has granted 16 and 17 year olds the chance to vote.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/201 ... -year-olds