View on an overstayers case

Hi All

I would like the views from experienced members on an overstayer's immigration history and current case. Here is the timeline of events:

2008: Arrived in UK on 2 year working holiday visa.
2013: As an overstayer made an application to remain on human rights which was refused.
2014: had an islaminc registration with partner.
2015: Couple had a British Child.
2016: Breakdown in relationship with partner.
2017: Applied for child contact order which was granted.
2017: Made an application to remain in UK on basis of contact with British Child. Application was refused.
March 2018: Reconcilled with partner on the basis of best interest of Child.
May 2019: Application made for leave to remain based on 'family route'. partner (sponsor) meets financial requirement, unable to do english test as HO has passport. The application has been made as ' unmarried partner' opposed to 'spouse'

Just wanted some throughts as to what the likelyhood is of refusal given that this application has been made as an overstayer and the past immigration history. These are the thoughts that come into my mind:

1. Past immigration refusals as an overstayer
2. previous application there was a breakdown, although they have reconcilled, it has only been 1 year
3. Do all overstayer applications get refused initially regardless of the application?

Would appreciate your views on this.

Thanks

Any thoughts on this please

Likely refusal on unmarried partner route as you have not lived in a partnership akin to marriage for two years.
If they refused even with a contact order in place then I don’t see why they would be willing to consider unmarried route when you don’t meet the basic parameters