BREXIT-- Threat or Opportunity

[HRH]

Good morning All,

Finally the decision has been made that Britain is exiting EU. PLEASE POST YOUR VIEWS ON THREATS & OPPORTUNITIES.

As a Brit who has been wanting to bring his non european mother to UK, I am seeing this shift both as a THREAT & as an OPPORTUNITY.

THREAT:

I applied for Irish D Visa for my mother on 07 Jan 2016 under European Treaty provision; with a plan to exercise my treaty rights in Ireland whilst getting my mum the entry to UK. After almost 6 months, neither has she been granted a visa, nor can we see any likelihood of her getting visa because of BREXIT.
Cutting the long story short, the EU door is closed for any BRIT looking to reunite his/her family by exercising treaty rights.


OPPORTUNITY:

Whilst I look at BREXIT as a threat, I am also seeing it as a blessing in disguise.
There is nothing worse than getting a visa for your family member, moving your center of life to a different EU state, slogging there for months; to discover later that all the money & time you have spent including your endeavors would go in vain!

Considering the easing of burden on UK resources & need of new funds to cope up with change; the only opportunity I am looking at is perhaps the immigration law reform, allowing the family members of citizens to join them in UK perhaps at an extra cost like Private health care or introducing minimum level of investment in Govt debts ............................................................................................
Which should make life simpler, instead of going to a different EU state to exercise treaty rights, moving center of life & going through the pain of visa both in host country & in UK. The SS route/Treaty route may sound cheap but as a family you spend a minimum of £10K (uprooting, settling, returning, utilities, local taxes, depreciation of car etc)+ STRESS of uncertainty.. Perhaps soon, the UK govt might realize the loss of revenue in terms of direct & indirect taxes which people could potentially pay whilst in UK instead of paying across the borders.


As a Brit, I am happy with the results as this definitely gives Britain lot more control over its borders & how it wants to spend it's tax payers money.

My sincere apologies to those who find these facts insulting & disturbing,---

- Just because they are part of EU, doesn't mean that UK should keep bearing the burden of their under-performance which is nothing but a result of their consistently inefficient model.

- Being in EU, UK has already allowed non tax payers from across the EU to settle in UK with their dependents irrespective of their nationality & to claim benefits at the cost of tax payers. However UK citizens & tax payers who pay taxes throughout with no expectation of benefits are the ones who suffer the most as there is virtually no visa policy for dependents of UK citizens. Isn't it penalizing your own citizens for paying the taxes?

- There are many smart, wealthy, law abiding & god fearing people outside EU who wish to invest their time, money, energy in UK. They definitely don't expect to receive benefits, except for the expectation of a decent/ safe life which perhaps their native countries can't offer. Shouldn't the authorities be making a case by case decision instead of rejecting the applicant just because he/she is not from EU?

[secret.simon]

Given the subject matter of the OP's initial post, would it be worth merging it into the following thread?
Will it be easier for non-EU parents if the UK leaves EU?

To the OP: I agree with the opportunities and scenarios that you outlined.

[Hamza2013]

Hi HRH,

In my situation i reckon Brexit helped us (this is my view, until unless gurus show me the real picture). I am exercising treaty rights in another EU country with my non-EEA parents living with me. With Brexit i cant see much opportunities for me settling here. Since i moved my center of life but buying property here and staying as British i dont see been easy, hence i reckon moving back to Uk should make the process smooth for me and my parents. This is my view though...

[HRH]

I agree with you Hamza.. Well done. Finally you have achieved what you have been struggling for so long.

This Brexit is really worrying me. It seems that people who campaigned for EXIT made border control as their main agenda persuading people to vote. But from what I can see from the news, the EXIT campaigners have left the nation in a limbo & ridiculed everyone as don't have f*****g clue of what their next steps would be.
How can they be so ignorant of ramifications of something which they have been passionately campaigning?

To add more annoyance they are suggesting that there will be no change to the free movement.
If you want to do business you have to allow free movement but this time at the cost of NO SAY or NO REPRESENTATION in the EU parliament...

It worries me even more if Scotland leaves the already alienated UK whilst taking away all the natural resources it has. How can you fight with a bigger union when your own union is falling apart.

To make things worse the pro-immigration & the only opposition party, LABOUR is also falling apart..

I really WISH if Camron could take the stand & continues to be in EU whilst discarding the BREXIT poll results.

[Jellybean105]

- Being in EU, UK has already allowed non tax payers from across the EU to settle in UK with their dependents irrespective of their nationality & to claim benefits at the cost of tax payers. However UK citizens & tax payers who pay taxes throughout with no expectation of benefits are the ones who suffer the most as there is virtually no visa policy for dependents of UK citizens. Isn't it penalizing your own citizens for paying the taxes?

- There are many smart, wealthy, law abiding & god fearing people outside EU who wish to invest their time, money, energy in UK. They definitely don't expect to receive benefits, except for the expectation of a decent/ safe life which perhaps their native countries can't offer. Shouldn't the authorities be making a case by case decision instead of rejecting the applicant just because he/she is not from EU?

Completely agree with you. I've always felt that EU citizens have had more rights when it came to bringing in their spouses than British citizens. How is that fair in any way? Having an income requirement, of which is higher than the minimum national wage, on one partner to get the other one in the country is just harsh.

Although I'm grateful for the SS route that got my non-eu husband out of trouble initially, hes now working here in the UK & paying taxes etc. We could claim benefits if we wanted to and sit on our bums but we aren't like that. My husband earns well above the national wage & I have a business, even with a 10 month old baby. We work hard and sometimes we do struggle but we do our best to make things work.
All immigrants shouldn't be stereotyped.

[secret.simon]

I apologise as this is unrelated to the theme of this discussion, but is relevant to it.

In breaking news, I heard on the radio (the six o'clock news on Radio 4) that the IPPR (The Institute for Public Policy Research) has suggested that all EU citizens in the UK be given ILR, possibly via emergency legislation, to prevent hordes of skilled EU citizens exitting the UK en masse.

I am unable to find a link to the story and will post links as and when I get it, but this is interesting as all EU citizens, not just those with PR, are included in their proposals.

Mind you, the IPPR is just a think-tank and a left leaning one at that. But the idea is out there for it to be progressed.

[ILR1980]

Brexit teams have not done their home work and they all seem clueless and confuse when it come to economy and immigration model

[ryuzaki]

Last night on Newsnight a government minister pretty much confirmed that the promise to make immigration easier for non-EEA citizens has been reneged. It lasted a bit longer than the £350m/week for the NHS, but not quite a week.

Realistically, there is around 0.0% chance of there being any positive reform. The referendum result is being taken as a sign that people wanted less immigration, full stop. The promise was less than 100k, so immigration needs to be reduced by 2/3rds. Once you look at people with skills and fee paying students there isn't any room left for family members.

Of the two possible Tory leaders, May is a well established xenophobe who will stop at nothing to get numbers down, including tearing up human rights. Bojo is more of an unknown because he has come out both in favour and against most Brexit issues.

[Nimitta]

Brexit teams have not done their home work and they all seem clueless and confuse when it come to economy and immigration model

What worries me after listening to Theresa May's speech is that there is no sign of her doing her homework either. She is saying we will get the best possible trade deal with no freedom of movement (in a nutshell), but what if the EU says no way and the best possible deal UK will get is no deal at all? She has to get prepared for that or it is going to be another shock for the country. And she has to say that to the people rather than hoping her plan "A" will fly and pretending the possibility of getting no trade deal does not exist.

[HRH]

Secret.simon & Ryuzaki...Thanks for sharing info.

I am not against Europeans or for that matter I am not against anyone who has worked hard to establish himself, raise his family standard whilst contributing to the economy. However when it comes to Europeans they always enjoy a prefrential treatment for being the member of club. Dishing out ILR on top of all privileges is like giving someone a hefty home improvement grant who earns £100K/ year & is already living in a luxurious mansion in RBKC; compared to a non EU who has to pay all sorts of fees or taxes to remain in UK including visa extension & then pays thousands of Pounds to Border Agency to obtain ILR.
Having passed all the hurdles till obtaining citizenship, the Person remains the same LOSER as he was on the day one. Now this man has a different fight, how to stay with your non EU family???

Just because you want the deal & want to keep the nation going, you have to succumb to the terms dictated by EU. Agreed. It's a necessity but at least have some respect & consideration for your own citizens.

This whole Brexit scenario is making me sick. Seeing xenophobes like Teresa May deciding your & your family's fate simply fills you with anger.

[HRH]

Brexit teams have not done their home work and they all seem clueless and confuse when it come to economy and immigration model

What worries me after listening to Theresa May's speech is that there is no sign of her doing her homework either. She is saying we will get the best possible trade deal with no freedom of movement (in a nutshell), but what if the EU says no way and the best possible deal UK will get is no deal at all? She has to get prepared for that or it is going to be another shock for the country. And she has to say that to the people rather than hoping her plan "A" will fly and pretending the possibility of getting no trade deal does not exist.

From what I understand from the reactions of leaders & interview of French minister Madame Royal,,,
as EU member UK has already enjoyed extrordinary privileges like retaining GBP, tweeking EU directives & interpreting them as per own convenience & off course having an upper hand in policy making.
Now with Brexit the Brits will still have to deal with free movement which the campaigners made a big issue of, BUT this time without the ordinary member privileges leave alone extrordinary ones. I really hope they don't drag us into EURO single currency as a part of settlement.

It's like cancelling your insurance without doing your homework & later on realising that there is no insurance provider in the market who could cover your perils. Finding yourself in a soup when your go back to the same insurance provider you are told that you can't get the same plan & they give you a worse deal as if they are doing you a favour. In short, you loose the previous better deal which you wrongly thought was bad, you settle for something worse, you loose your loyalty discount/ benefit, you have already strained the relations & worst of all your evident desperation has now left you more vulnerable than ever.

[secret.simon]

A succinct summary of where we are legally with Brexit.

There are times when politics simply outstrips the law. This feels like one of them.

[secret.simon]

As regards Ms May, I am flattered that atleast some Germans seem to be in agreement with me about her similarity to Merkel.

Whether Merkel is a politician to look up to is another argument altogether, as made obvious in the comments to that post.

On the positive side, Ms May has announced that she has no plans to withdraw the UK from the ECHR as such a plan would have no parliamentary majority.

[secret.simon]

Mark Mardell's very insightful article on why the referendum result has cleft the country (and these forums) into two halves so thoroughly.

Many in the first group think a liberal immigration policy, like membership of the the European Union, makes for the sort of society they celebrate - they are not simply "tolerant" but enthusiastic about diversity, be it in terms of sexuality or a multicultural society.

The second group feels immigration causes them economic pain and in some case culture shock: it is an affront to their sense of a homogeneous country.
...
Leavers tend to believe in a strong unitary state, based at Westminster, ruling over the whole of the UK. They dislike devolution and the EU in equal measure, and believe not so much in the old British Empire, but in what some have called the English Empire.

I know two families talking seriously of moving to Scotland so they can stay in the EU.

Not unlike this thread.

[secret.simon]

Blood is thicker than water.

New Zealand offers UK its top trade negotiators for post-Brexit deals

Murray McCully offers Britain help with looming Brexit trade negotiations

Foreign Minister Murray McCully has offered Britain any help New Zealand can give to assist its post-Brexit negotiations - and isn't ruling out giving them the use of our top trade negotiators.

He also floated the possibility of Britain choosing to rapidly sign a "symbolic" free trade agreement with New Zealand.

Would Brexit cause the revival of the Commonwealth as a trading bloc? It has the advantage that due to the common British heritage, the core legal concepts are the same (unlike the UK-EU legal distinctions) and that it concludes the booming economy of India. It may be the return of the prodigal parent rather than the prodigal son to the family.

[ILR1980]

Brexit teams have not done their home work and they all seem clueless and confuse when it come to economy and immigration model

What worries me after listening to Theresa May's speech is that there is no sign of her doing her homework either. She is saying we will get the best possible trade deal with no freedom of movement (in a nutshell), but what if the EU says no way and the best possible deal UK will get is no deal at all? She has to get prepared for that or it is going to be another shock for the country. And she has to say that to the people rather than hoping her plan "A" will fly and pretending the possibility of getting no trade deal does not exist.

To be honest it seem that all those who were leading the leave campaign did not expected the victory for leave side and now they have no clue how to handle the situation as they are giving contradictory statements. Its easy to give emotional speeches about economy and about taking back control but its hard to put these plans in practice. David Cameron is better speaker than this Nigel, Boris or Theresa May so future is uncertain

[Obie]

What was said in Parliament about the status of EU nationals in the UK?

[dapto10]

I apologise as this is unrelated to the theme of this discussion, but is relevant to it.

In breaking news, I heard on the radio (the six o'clock news on Radio 4) that the IPPR (The Institute for Public Policy Research) has suggested that all EU citizens in the UK be given ILR, possibly via emergency legislation, to prevent hordes of skilled EU citizens exitting the UK en masse.

I am unable to find a link to the story and will post links as and when I get it, but this is interesting as all EU citizens, not just those with PR, are included in their proposals.

Mind you, the IPPR is just a think-tank and a left leaning one at that. But the idea is out there for it to be progressed.

Some MPs are trying to form an informal coalition and force the government to regocnise the rights of EU citizens currently residing in the UK in British law. I heard that from people working at one of the main parties' HQ. It's early stages though and it seems like EU migrants will become a bargaining chip when it comes to the actual process of withdrawal.

[Nimitta]

Some MPs are trying to form an informal coalition and force the government to regocnise the rights of EU citizens currently residing in the UK in British law. I heard that from people working at one of the main parties' HQ. It's early stages though and it seems like EU migrants will become a bargaining chip when it comes to the actual process of withdrawal.

It seems so. Although it is a double edged sward. Over a million brits forced to go back home from the EU... Any party or government that will make this kind of decision is doomed. And unlike the 3 millions of EU citizens livin in the UK those over 1 million are voters you know. They have families in the UK, and they all will be furious.

[dapto10]

I apologise as this is unrelated to the theme of this discussion, but is relevant to it.

In breaking news, I heard on the radio (the six o'clock news on Radio 4) that the IPPR (The Institute for Public Policy Research) has suggested that all EU citizens in the UK be given ILR, possibly via emergency legislation, to prevent hordes of skilled EU citizens exitting the UK en masse.

I am unable to find a link to the story and will post links as and when I get it, but this is interesting as all EU citizens, not just those with PR, are included in their proposals.

Mind you, the IPPR is just a think-tank and a left leaning one at that. But the idea is out there for it to be progressed.

Some MPs are trying to form an informal coalition and force the government to recognise the rights of EU citizens currently residing in the UK in British law. I heard that from people working at one of the main parties' HQ. It's early stages though and it seems like EU migrants will become a bargaining chip when it comes to the actual process of withdrawal.

[dapto10]

It seems so. Although it is a double edged sward. Over a million brits forced to go back home from the EU... Any party or government that will make this kind of decision is doomed. And unlike the 3 millions of EU citizens livin in the UK those over 1 million are voters you know. They have families in the UK, and they all will be furious.

You're absolutely right! What worries me is the fact that (so called) senior politicians are now speculating and 'playing' with the idea, including a UKIP member of the Lords who suggested exactly that... and there are some MPs talking about repealing ECA 1972 which could bring even more uncertainty.

The official Vote Leave statement was something in the lines of "Everyone who's 'legally' in Britain will be allowed to stay'. My question is what does 'legally' actually mean. All EU citizens are here legally right now, it's called Freedom of Movement. So the whole "Everyone legally here would be allowed to stay' thing is nonsense and a rather arrogant speculation.

[Richard W]

The official Vote Leave statement was something in the lines of "Everyone who's 'legally' in Britain will be allowed to stay'. My question is what does 'legally' actually mean. All EU citizens are here legally right now, it's called Freedom of Movement. So the whole "Everyone legally here would be allowed to stay' thing is nonsense and a rather arrogant speculation.

If you followed the EEA route forum you'd know that there are many instances of resident EEA nationals ceasing to be a qualified person or permanent resident. When that happens to those not married to another EEA national, they usually cease to be legal residents. The usual consequence is that someone fails to achieve permanent residence when they expected to.

[Petaltop]

The official Vote Leave statement was something in the lines of "Everyone who's 'legally' in Britain will be allowed to stay'.

I heard them say, every EU citizen working in the UK. That's certainly not every person in the UK under EU rules.

[secret.simon]

There's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip.

If you think about it,
Nobody expected a leave vote,
Then nobody expected David Cameron not to trigger Article 50 immediatly,
Then nobody expected Theresa May to be the lead contender to be Prime Minister
Then nobody expected Boris Johnson to step aside from the leadership elections (there goes that amnesty for illegal migrants);
Then nobody expected the bloodletting in the Labour Party
Then nobody expected the Spanish Inquisition.

Moral of the story: It is unpredictable times. Almost every crystal ball in the UK has cracked under the strain. Accept what is at the moment and do not speculate on what may be, for it almost certainly will not come to pass.

Que sera sera (What will be, will be)

[Casa]

There's many a slip 'twixt cup and lip.

If you think about it,
Nobody expected a leave vote,
Then nobody expected David Cameron not to trigger Article 50 immediatly,
Then nobody expected Theresa May to be the lead contender to be Prime Minister
Then nobody expected Boris Johnson to step aside from the leadership elections (there goes that amnesty for illegal migrants);
Then nobody expected the bloodletting in the Labour Party
Then nobody expected the Spanish Inquisition.

Moral of the story: It is unpredictable times. Almost every crystal ball in the UK has cracked under the strain. Accept what is at the moment and do not speculate on what may be, for it almost certainly will not come to pass.

Que sera sera (What will be, will be)

Brilliant. Spot on!