Do I have a chance? If yes what chances and how guaranteed.

[Question mark]

I have overstayed my visa for about two years and have also been refused a spouse visa under the EU visa. It was a arranged and I guess they found out. Now I have a British girl and have married her. Although the first time I tried to marry her i was arrested but was released the same day because I look after my partners child she had from a previous relationship. Now I went back to the same registry and got married and they let me. Am now now thinking of applying for a discretionary leave as I have no valid stay at the moment. Do I have any chance and if yes how big is the chance of being successful also would like to know what the worst case scenario would be
Thanks for helping.