Any chance estimation? Tier2 Rcos for May

[Shaahin]

Hi all,

I have spent an hour in the forums but I could not a dedicated topic for asking help in this issue. So sorry in advance if this is not the proper way to ask this question.
So this is my situation, and I would be more than grateful if you give me some feedback.

The position is "data scientist", offered by a very large company in London. It is not in SOL. (30p?)
The company has passed Resident Labor Market Test. 20p
My salary is 46k with 15% bonus (does it matter?) so I guess 25p
Also I have graduated from one of UK top universities in 2012, then I left the country. I guess this one can be used as my English proficiency.

There is a immigration company that works with my sponsor on my case. They applied on April, but I got rejected. I was told that they applied in May as well.

How do you evaluate my case? Any chance? high? low?
Have rejected applicants of April higher chance in May?

Many thanks in advance

[Shaahin]

With 45 points seemingly there is little hope for me. The minimum threshold has not been below 46 for a while

[ashishkm]

Hi all,

I have spent an hour in the forums but I could not a dedicated topic for asking help in this issue. So sorry in advance if this is not the proper way to ask this question.
So this is my situation, and I would be more than grateful if you give me some feedback.

The position is "data scientist", offered by a very large company in London. It is not in SOL. (30p?)
The company has passed Resident Labor Market Test. 20p
My salary is 46k with 15% bonus (does it matter?) so I guess 25p
Also I have graduated from one of UK top universities in 2012, then I left the country. I guess this one can be used as my English proficiency.

There is a immigration company that works with my sponsor on my case. They applied on April, but I got rejected. I was told that they applied in May as well.

How do you evaluate my case? Any chance? high? low?
Have rejected applicants of April higher chance in May?

Many thanks in advance

With recent 4 months observation, it is either 50K salary and sometimes 55K are getting through. It is sad to say this, however we expect things to improve May (if not Apr - as we saw last month)

Also, can your sponsor make 15% bonus as a guaranteed bonus - so it can be included into gross salary can be shown as 46K + 6.9K in your CoS application? I hope this makes you a strong case to get through in May, even if the cutoff stays the same as 50K

Anyways, I wish you good luck.

[Shaahin]

Thanks for your comment. No the bonus is not guaranteed, and the contract cannot be changed without doing the market test again. So nothing can be changed from my side.

Since last month minimum was 46points, or 50k salary, I have little hope that all >=46 points get their approvals, and finally our applications are considered. 55k in March, 50k in April, now fingers cross that [45,50) would be May's bracket.

[ashishkm]

Thanks for your comment. No the bonus is not guaranteed, and the contract cannot be changed without doing the market test again. So nothing can be changed from my side.

Since last month minimum was 46points, or 50k salary, I have little hope that all >=46 points get their approvals, and finally our applications are considered. 55k in March, 50k in April, now fingers cross that [45,50) would be May's bracket.

If you initial RLMT (market test) shows a range of salary (say 45 - 55K), they can amend the CoS application in sponsor note (I think , I may be wrong)
otherwise if they put a single number, then you are right - it can't be changed

Anyways, my best wishes to you and many other friends who are waiting for less than 46 point range. They should get it as they deserve it after long waiting.

[asakya]

Thanks for your comment. No the bonus is not guaranteed, and the contract cannot be changed without doing the market test again. So nothing can be changed from my side.

Since last month minimum was 46points, or 50k salary, I have little hope that all >=46 points get their approvals, and finally our applications are considered. 55k in March, 50k in April, now fingers cross that [45,50) would be May's bracket.

I'm in the same boat as you although first time applicant in May. 45 points as well. Quick question - did your company's labour market test list the salary as 45k or did it say "competitive"? I wonder if the salary can be changed if RLMT's list it as competitive....I am thinking of asking my employer to change it to 50k if 45 doesn't get through this month but want to be sure that they cannot reply saying "sorry we would have to re-do labour market test".

[Shaahin]

Good point. I have to ask! I assumed that they wrote 45k, but I have never asked or seen the ad. So if it is "competitive", then it can be changed. I would ask as well.

[Shaahin]

Thanks for your comment. No the bonus is not guaranteed, and the contract cannot be changed without doing the market test again. So nothing can be changed from my side.

Since last month minimum was 46points, or 50k salary, I have little hope that all >=46 points get their approvals, and finally our applications are considered. 55k in March, 50k in April, now fingers cross that [45,50) would be May's bracket.

I'm in the same boat as you although first time applicant in May. 45 points as well. Quick question - did your company's labour market test list the salary as 45k or did it say "competitive"? I wonder if the salary can be changed if RLMT's list it as competitive....I am thinking of asking my employer to change it to 50k if 45 doesn't get through this month but want to be sure that they cannot reply saying "sorry we would have to re-do labour market test".

Good point. I have to ask! I assumed that they wrote 45k, but I have never asked or seen the ad. So if it is "competitive", then it can be changed. I would ask as well.

[Shaahin]

Thanks for your comment. No the bonus is not guaranteed, and the contract cannot be changed without doing the market test again. So nothing can be changed from my side.

Since last month minimum was 46points, or 50k salary, I have little hope that all >=46 points get their approvals, and finally our applications are considered. 55k in March, 50k in April, now fingers cross that [45,50) would be May's bracket.

I'm in the same boat as you although first time applicant in May. 45 points as well. Quick question - did your company's labour market test list the salary as 45k or did it say "competitive"? I wonder if the salary can be changed if RLMT's list it as competitive....I am thinking of asking my employer to change it to 50k if 45 doesn't get through this month but want to be sure that they cannot reply saying "sorry we would have to re-do labour market test".

Btw, I think we have more chance than what I estimated before. According to gov.uk website, in April, all applicants with 46 points or higher were given the approval. Even 25 quotas were taken from May. So it means that, there is no applicant above us except for the ones who have applied in May. Assuming that the number of these applicants is not too high, it is our turn now to get evaluation, either in May or in June

[asakya]

Thanks for your comment. No the bonus is not guaranteed, and the contract cannot be changed without doing the market test again. So nothing can be changed from my side.

Since last month minimum was 46points, or 50k salary, I have little hope that all >=46 points get their approvals, and finally our applications are considered. 55k in March, 50k in April, now fingers cross that [45,50) would be May's bracket.

I'm in the same boat as you although first time applicant in May. 45 points as well. Quick question - did your company's labour market test list the salary as 45k or did it say "competitive"? I wonder if the salary can be changed if RLMT's list it as competitive....I am thinking of asking my employer to change it to 50k if 45 doesn't get through this month but want to be sure that they cannot reply saying "sorry we would have to re-do labour market test".

Btw, I think we have more chance than what I estimated before. According to gov.uk website, in April, all applicants with 46 points or higher were given the approval. Even 25 quotas were taken from May. So it means that, there is no applicant above us except for the ones who have applied in May. Assuming that the number of these applicants is not too high, it is our turn now to get evaluation, either in May or in June

Yeah but there are at 600 - 1000+* applicants who are going to apply with 45 points in May given the backlog from previous months. So therefore they need to only have around 1000-1200 people on 46 and above which will then mean enough certificates left over to also get 45 through. But in April we can see there were ~ 2000 people on 46 and above. So that's what makes it tough.

*Since you're a data scientist.....according to the poll here https://www.poll-maker.com/results19388 ... 9-53#tab-2 there's 24% of people on this website at 45 (n=270). The population 95% CI is therefore from 20% to 30% of applicants. Assuming around 3000+ applicants a month which is a reasonable guess, number of applicants at 45 could around 1000.

[Shaahin]

Yeah but there are at 600 - 1000+* applicants who are going to apply with 45 points in May given the backlog from previous months. So therefore they need to only have around 1000-1200 people on 46 and above which will then mean enough certificates left over to also get 45 through. But in April we can see there were ~ 2000 people on 46 and above. So that's what makes it tough.

*Since you're a data scientist.....according to the poll here https://www.poll-maker.com/results19388 ... 9-53#tab-2 there's 24% of people on this website at 45 (n=270). The population 95% CI is therefore from 20% to 30% of applicants. Assuming around 3000+ applicants a month which is a reasonable guess, number of applicants at 45 could around 1000.

You are right, new applicants from +46points brackets will come, but this bracket once got cleared in April. The number of applicants in April was so high because in March the minimum was 55k, and [50,55) remained for April. There is no 46+ points applicants coming from April, according to the gov website, all got their approvals.

Assuming what we have here is a representative sample, still there is hope for May and June. Btw, don't they get any priority to earlier applicants in case of tie? For instance if two applicants are at 45points, one who has applied in March and April should have higher priority to the one who has applied for the first time.

To approve your statistical calculations, here I did a bootstrapping in R :

[Shaahin]

btw, I guess the poll sample that we have here is not representative. Rationally, applicants with high salaries are not worried so they don't come here like us.

[asakya]

btw, I guess the poll sample that we have here is not representative. Rationally, applicants with high salaries are not worried so they don't come here like us.

Nice work on the distribution

Yea the poll is definitely not representative you're right. So I guess the true proportion would be less than 24% since there would be many more 60+ applicants.

To answer your other question - no there is no priority. If there are 1000 people on 45 points, then ALL 1000 have to be cleared or none at all. The Home Office is very clear on this in the guidance document. There is no priority and no way to distinguish between applicants on the same number of points. That is why I am saying it is difficult, because they would have to clear all of us and if there are not enough certificates left for that, then all of us would be rejected, even if it meant 600, 700 or whatever number of certificates left unused for the month.

[c_f]

btw, I guess the poll sample that we have here is not representative. Rationally, applicants with high salaries are not worried so they don't come here like us.

Nice work on the distribution

Yea the poll is definitely not representative you're right. So I guess the true proportion would be less than 24% since there would be many more 60+ applicants.

To answer your other question - no there is no priority. If there are 1000 people on 45 points, then ALL 1000 have to be cleared or none at all. The Home Office is very clear on this in the guidance document. There is no priority and no way to distinguish between applicants on the same number of points. That is why I am saying it is difficult, because they would have to clear all of us and if there are not enough certificates left for that, then all of us would be rejected, even if it meant 600, 700 or whatever number of certificates left unused for the month.

What if 45's backlog is already more than 2000?
Some people applying since December

[Shaahin]

What if 45's backlog is already more than 2000?
Some people applying since December

Probably the data that we have here is not far from the real population, beside the fact that we are talking about the evaluation of [45,50) bracket, whether there are 1000 or 2000 are there. It is important to know how they break the tie, i.e. how the applicants of same point/bracket are sorted.

It may be based on their salary, or the number of months that they have been waiting for the result. In any case if they start evaluation of [45,50) bracket from May, then there is chance for applicants with 45p

[Shaahin]

This is very strange then! Every month new applicants are added to [45-50), and the number goes up and up, above the usual number of certificates that they issue. In other words, it is unofficially like rejecting these applicants permanently, while keeping them hopeful

[asakya]

What if 45's backlog is already more than 2000?
Some people applying since December

Probably the data that we have here is not far from the real population, beside the fact that we are talking about the evaluation of [45,50) bracket, whether there are 1000 or 2000 are there. It is important to know how they break the tie, i.e. how the applicants of same point/bracket are sorted.

It may be based on their salary, or the number of months that they have been waiting for the result. In any case if they start evaluation of [45,50) bracket from May, then there is chance for applicants with 45p

Look at page 131 and 132 here. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... l_v1.0.pdf

There is no differentiation of candidates on the same number of points. Either all are approved or none at all. No breaking of ties.

So if there are more than 2000 at 45 then yes it implies permanent rejection unless there are policy changes which increase the cap etc.

[Shaahin]

What if 45's backlog is already more than 2000?
Some people applying since December

Probably the data that we have here is not far from the real population, beside the fact that we are talking about the evaluation of [45,50) bracket, whether there are 1000 or 2000 are there. It is important to know how they break the tie, i.e. how the applicants of same point/bracket are sorted.

It may be based on their salary, or the number of months that they have been waiting for the result. In any case if they start evaluation of [45,50) bracket from May, then there is chance for applicants with 45p

Look at page 131 and 132 here. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... l_v1.0.pdf

There is no differentiation of candidates on the same number of points. Either all are approved or none at all. No breaking of ties.

So if there are more than 2000 at 45 then yes it implies permanent rejection unless there are policy changes which increase the cap etc.

I believed you the without the docs even, but the document is clear anyway. So it seems there is no hope for me. Btw, when are the results announced?

[asakya]

What if 45's backlog is already more than 2000?
Some people applying since December

Probably the data that we have here is not far from the real population, beside the fact that we are talking about the evaluation of [45,50) bracket, whether there are 1000 or 2000 are there. It is important to know how they break the tie, i.e. how the applicants of same point/bracket are sorted.

It may be based on their salary, or the number of months that they have been waiting for the result. In any case if they start evaluation of [45,50) bracket from May, then there is chance for applicants with 45p

Look at page 131 and 132 here. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... l_v1.0.pdf

There is no differentiation of candidates on the same number of points. Either all are approved or none at all. No breaking of ties.

So if there are more than 2000 at 45 then yes it implies permanent rejection unless there are policy changes which increase the cap etc.

I believed you the without the docs even, but the document is clear anyway. So it seems there is no hope for me. Btw, when are the results announced?

I think there is always hope so don't give up yet . Hopefully 45 gets through this month and so on.

I think our companies will start to get the results around 14th, 15th next week. People will be posting their results here too so we will get an idea very quickly. The official stats should come on the UK Gov website around 19th I guess.

[Shaahin]

I think there is always hope so don't give up yet . Hopefully 45 gets through this month and so on.

I think our companies will start to get the results around 14th, 15th next week. People will be posting their results here too so we will get an idea very quickly. The official stats should come on the UK Gov website around 19th I guess.

Thanks for the dates. I am not sure whether my sponsor re-applies for me in June, but I guess in May, below 1000 CoS would be issued, and the rest would be added to June. In June or July 45p would get their approvals.

Anyway, good to know it, I can plan my life better!

[sptula]

could be 55 again this month

[asakya]

Yeah but there are at 600 - 1000+* applicants who are going to apply with 45 points in May given the backlog from previous months. So therefore they need to only have around 1000-1200 people on 46 and above which will then mean enough certificates left over to also get 45 through. But in April we can see there were ~ 2000 people on 46 and above. So that's what makes it tough.

*Since you're a data scientist.....according to the poll here https://www.poll-maker.com/results19388 ... 9-53#tab-2 there's 24% of people on this website at 45 (n=270). The population 95% CI is therefore from 20% to 30% of applicants. Assuming around 3000+ applicants a month which is a reasonable guess, number of applicants at 45 could around 1000.

You are right, new applicants from +46points brackets will come, but this bracket once got cleared in April. The number of applicants in April was so high because in March the minimum was 55k, and [50,55) remained for April. There is no 46+ points applicants coming from April, according to the gov website, all got their approvals.

Assuming what we have here is a representative sample, still there is hope for May and June. Btw, don't they get any priority to earlier applicants in case of tie? For instance if two applicants are at 45points, one who has applied in March and April should have higher priority to the one who has applied for the first time.

To approve your statistical calculations, here I did a bootstrapping in R :

Check this out....someone has released the public data of how many applications in each points band - https://www.whatdotheyknow.com/request/ ... .xlsx.html