Wow!!! General Election on June 8th

[UKBALoveStory]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-39628713

Really

[ILR4PVM]

Here is a chance for redemption on the blunder that was committed last June based on post-truths ... or probably to choose the lesser of the evils ... Vote wisely

[secret.simon]

One needs to be very careful about what one wishes for. Wishes may come true. People who wanted a General Election/second chance have got it. But it may not play out they way they think.

An election strengthens TM's hand significantly. At a stroke, she gets herself rid of the "unelected PM" and "no mandate for a Hard Brexit" tags. The manifesto of the Conservative Party will almost certainly contain significant guidance as to future immigration policy. That should be looked at very closely. Twitter chatter suggests that student numbers may be taken out, but that a 50,000 target may also be considered.

On current projections, Theresa May is projected to win a 100 seat majority. There was a graph a few months ago that suggested that Leave constituencies outnumbered Remain constituencies 2 to 1. If people vote on the same basis as in the Referendum, there is a positive chance that the House of Commons will be significantly more Euro-sceptic, in addition to being strongly Conservative. On the other hand, it could weaken the Hard Brexiteers, as the government would have a bigger majority.

Theresa May also has a personal vote that David Cameron did not have. Two people have already told me today that they will vote Conservative just for Theresa May even though they have never voted Conservative (or never voted at all) before. There is a global trend towards decisive leadership (Trump in the US, Erdogan in Turkey, Modi in India, Duerte in the Philippines, etc). The public mood across the world seems to be for "less talk, action now". That may play a role in our General Election.

Key thing to remember is that this is not a second referendum when it comes to counting on the ground. Unlike a referendum when each vote did matter, in a General Election, it would be filtered through the shape and composition of the constituencies. Duverger's law will come into play in a significant way, with there being such a clear defining policy decision.

Things to do
Remember to register to vote now. All British and Commonwealth citizens have the right to vote, but new citizens are not automatically enrolled on the Electoral Register. So, all EEA/British citizens and people who have not registered before or who have moved house will need to register through the website.

Currently, #Remain & #StopBrexit are trending on Twitter. Worth following them if you are interested in that topic.

The Lib-Dems have reported 1000+ new members within one hour of the PM's announcement.

[secret.simon]

Twitter suggesting that bets are already being placed on Gina Miller standing for the Lib-Dems in a London seat (possibly Vauxhall??) and winning. She may make it to the front-bench almost immediately!!!

The Washington Post takes a negative view - Sorry, remainers: Britain’s snap elections won’t reverse Brexit.

[mkhan2525]

This election is nothing more than a chance for Theresa May to secure another 5 years in office before things turn for the worst. If she were to hold an election same time next year you can bet she would be gone.

I wouldn't hold my breath on seeing the back of this vile party after 8th June.

[ouflak1]

Looks like pollsters and pundits alike are saying that Theresa May is way ahead in the polls. SHE'S DOOMED!

[secret.simon]

Looks like pollsters and pundits alike are saying that Theresa May is way ahead in the polls. SHE'S DOOMED!

Given their recent track record, that is certainly one way of looking at it

We can take comfort that Jeremy Corbyn will be kissing hands in June 2017 and we are confident of his position on Brexit, which is Leave/Remain/sitting on the fence (choose whichever options makes you feel good).

We know that as a vicar's daughter, Theresa May must have read the Bible, but it seems that she has read and understood The Prince too.

Think about it. Almost exactly a month ago, the two Houses were debating the Brexit bill. Had there been even the slightest hint that Theresa May was considering dissolution, the Lib-Dems and the Lords would have stalled the Bill. She got it through, triggered Brexit and only then, but while she had the time as the EU has not yet decided its negotiation position, has she announced the General Election.

On another aspect too, her planning is impeccable. So far, the Remainers have always said that the Referendum was a vote to leave the EU, but there is no mandate to leave the Single Market, we should remain in the EEA, etc. But in this General Election, if the Conservatives have a manifesto commitment to exit the Single Market and the jurisdiction of the ECJ AND they win a majority, they will have a mandate to exit both. Ironically, those who hoped for a General Election to reverse Brexit could regret it because now if the Conservatives win, the country will have effectively voted TWICE to exit the EU and to control immigration. And that immeasurably weakens the Remain argument.

The sheer audacity of the timing (after starting the Brexit process, but before negotiations have even begun) of the move to go to the country is breathtaking. Whatever you may say of her policies, as a politician, she is not just good, she is brilliant. She is a Prime Minister in a way that Cameron never was. Had she been Prime Minister at the time of the Referendum and had she been convinced of the Remain arguments, I doubt we would have had a Leave decision.

As Home Secretary, she made my immigration journey difficult, with increasing salary requirements et al. But as a citizen, in these difficult times, I want the damned best leader I can get. And of the range that we have now, she undoubtedly is TINA (There Is No Alternative).

[Ali272]

Agree, she is a great politician. She is smart, confident and most importantly believable (unlike Cameron). To be honest she hasn't done that much to reduce immigration. She is all talk, no action (maybe little action) like any other politician. So there won't be any election in 2020, right? the next one would be in 2022?

[UKBALoveStory]

....(There Is No Alternative).

Why would you say that?

I really doubt she is the only choice. In recent past any major decision that she (and her team) made was forced to be rolled back. Be it the tax issue, or Brexit Parliament approval. Look at how she has filled the article 50 bill (Just 3 liner) and 5 days to debate. Look at how she is treating other devolved parliaments. Nicola sturgeon recently mentioned that she get to know about Article 50 triggering through Media. Really? This is how you treat people? When you are in power, it is your duty to make sure you take everyone on board. It is your responsibility to join people and not create separations. Even if you have 99% majority, you still treat the remaining 1% with respect. Not the way she treat other people.

Look at how she answers questions in PM Q&A session.

Look at her team - Boris Johnson. Does anybody really trust Boris Johnson? With a bunch of lies they just manged to sell Brexit.


All in IMHO

[secret.simon]

Looks like pollsters and pundits alike are saying that Theresa May is way ahead in the polls. SHE'S DOOMED!

A leading US pollster agrees with Ouflak1's point of view.
The U.K. Snap Election Is Riskier Than It Seems
Theresa May’s conservatives are probably headed to a big win, but polls in the U.K. are terrible.

So there won't be any election in 2020, right? the next one would be in 2022?

Assuming that she gets her motion through the House of Commons tomorrow, that is correct. After June 8th, the following General Election, as per the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, will be on the first Thursday in May 2022.

Why would you say that? I really doubt she is the only choice.

Name your alternative Prime Minister.

Brexit Parliament approval

That wasn't a rollback. The highest court in the land gave its judgment on the requirements of Brexit and the government complied with the judgment.

When you are in power, it is your duty to make sure you take everyone on board.

What your duties are in power varies from person to person. In a conversation with another person, admittedly from a different country with a different political philosophy, their view was that the duty of the person in charge is to get results that the populace want. Provided they stay within the law and alter the law legally, what matters, in that point of view, is results, not how you get them. That philosophy differs significantly from a Western liberal perspective. But you can see that there is more than one way to look at duties of those in power.

As I mentioned in my earlier post, the global trend is towards leaders with less talk, more action. And people get hurt as a result of action. The leader has to make a judgment call as to how much hurt can be inflicted without the populace at large getting affected by it.

Even if you have 99% majority, you still treat the remaining 1% with respect.

Respect works both ways. The minority must be treated with respect. At the same time, the minority must also respect the wishes of the majority and accept that the country is governed with the will of the majority, even if that is what the minority does not want. If the minority does everything it can to frustrate the will of the majority, it could be argued that they forfeit their respect as well.

Look at how she answers questions in PM Q&A session.

Funnily enough, I have followed PMQs for years (including before my immigration; I have studied political science) and I think she does a damned good job of them, compared to other Prime Ministers (since and including Blair). It helps (or maybe not) that she is opposite Jeremy Corbyn, who is less than effective. But she is quite robust with the SNP's Angus Robertson, for instance.

[abhisheks9]

The sheer audacity of the timing (after starting the Brexit process, but before negotiations have even begun) of the move to go to the country is breathtaking. Whatever you may say of her policies, as a politician, she is not just good, she is brilliant. She is a Prime Minister in a way that Cameron never was. Had she been Prime Minister at the time of the Referendum and had she been convinced of the Remain arguments, I doubt we would have had a Leave decision.

As Home Secretary, she made my immigration journey difficult, with increasing salary requirements et al. But as a citizen, in these difficult times, I want the damned best leader I can get. And of the range that we have now, she undoubtedly is TINA (There Is No Alternative).

This last 2 para are so much contradictory. How can you trust someone who applied discriminatory policies with ever increasing exorbitant immigration fees just because she could do but never had balls to do with other section like EEA? (Check current ILR fee now)
We here should know best about her credibility in her job as Home Office minister as someone who sucked in it?
She is cunning who cannot face public, debates and rose on ashes of peer group of remain campaigners aka cameron, osborne.
Again she is evil brilliant here who want extended run in office with snap election and i see her having no concern for even her party let alone public.
PS: tories are spineless to have no leadership alternative to this lady

[UKBALoveStory]

Name your alternative Prime Minister.

I would rather vote for a stone than voting for TM.

That wasn't a rollback. The highest court in the land gave its judgment on the requirements of Brexit and the government complied with the judgment.

True, however they did it half hearted. ( 5 days and 3 liner bill).

As I mentioned in my earlier post, the global trend is towards leaders with less talk, more action.

Even if agree with you,where have you see any actions from her? so far, I have just seen her talking (without any vision) and no actions. You ask her any question and you never get a straight answer. All she has to say "we are working for the best deal possible." OR "Brexit means Brexit" - Nothing else really.

She is not a "King" who can do whatever she likes. She is answerable to people of the country and the people of the country have the right to know where the country is heading.

And last but not least, does anybody really trust Boris? He (& co) just sold Brexit with bunch of lies.

[abhisheks9]

Third party weblink removed

[secret.simon]

I apologise for not having had the time to respond to the previous three posts. I am snowed under workwise. I will respond time permitting.

Some other points/news items that I think deserve reflection.

Why Theresa May’s snap election isn’t all about Brexit

In this respect, it should be noted that Britain is no longer a nation divided, as it was last June, between the “52- and 48-percenters.” More recent polls suggest that a large majority of 69 percent want to proceed with Brexit while only 21 percent want to overturn the result.

So far Labour has said that they won't join a progressive alliance with the other non-Conservative parties.

There is a Twitter hashtag trying to guess the relative sizes of the political parties at the election.

Betting markets have been more reliable than polls in the UK in the recent past and there has been a surge of bets suggesting that Jeremy Corbyn may be Prime Minister after the elections.

Gina Miller is launching the 'biggest tactical voting effort in UK history'. Definitely one worth following. I do not think that anything similar has been tried on a national scale in the UK before (not counting the Lib-Lab pacts).

Finally, away from the elections and the UK, it has been a bad week for highly-skilled immigration around the world.

[Obie]

This may well be an opportunity for the British People to see sense, and stop this hard, dangerous , destructive and backward brexit on its tracks.
Whiles they are at it, they may well want to send these right wing tories zealots packing.

[secret.simon]

An eloquent critique of net immigration target. And a damning comment.

https://twitter.com/shashj/status/855302952340209664

Also a must-follow thread on Twitter about Brexit.

NON PAPER ON KEY ELEMENTS LIKELY TO FEATURE IN THE DRAFT NEGOTIATING DIRECTIVES
As an aside, seriously EU, what on Earth is a non-paper?

[vinny]

Non-paper.

[secret.simon]

Non-paper.

One learns something new every day. Thank you, vinny.

General election timetable 2017

Deadline to register - Monday 22nd May - Register to vote on the gov.uk website
Deadline to register for a postal vote - Tuesday 23rd May - Application for requesting postal vote.

Snap election means time is of the essence - Article in the Times (subscription required) on the procedural aspects of a snap election

The choice in election 2017: Brexit or Brexit

Lib Dems may be running as party of Remain, but few Remain-voting seats are realistically within their grasp

And in the elections across the Channel...
Jolted Into Action by Brexit, French Londoners Flock to Vote

[secret.simon]

I do not do Photoshop. Can somebody with the requisite skills do the necessary to convert this image into one with a message suitable for the audience of these forums?

[secret.simon]

For those following these elections, some truly astonishing opinion polls out in today's newspapers. Most of them are summarised on Twitter by @BritainElects.

Broadly, the Tories are at about 45%-50%, with the Lib Dems at 11%. That would give the Tories about 400 MPs, well over the 323 majority mark.

The part that I found most shocking is that the Tories are at 33% in Scotland, where not five years ago, they were pratically a pariah party. Remember that a third of Scotland did vote Leave and that seems to have coelesced behind the Tories. Prof John Curtice, who is a well-reputed psephologist, estimates that Tories would win 12 seats in Scotland. If that does turn out to be the case, that would be the first time in 50 years that the Tories have won so many seats in Scotland. My estimate is that they are likely to get about 4-5 seats.

A key factor to remember is that the First Past The Post (FPTP) electoral system in these elections can accentuate swings. My favourite example is the 1993 Canadian Parliament election, when the governing Conservatives there fell from 43% to 16% in votes cast. But because of the FPTP system, their loss in seats was from 156 to just 2.

The New European has published a guide on strategic voting. But Macleans Canada thinks that strategic voting based on opinion polls do not really work in a system almost identical to ours.

Broadening from the election to the electorate, here are two thought-provoking articles to reflect on.
Political polarisation has grown most among the old

The Other N-word
I highly recommend the latter article, which reflects many of my thoughts on the topic in question, including on some of the choice of words.

On a lighter note, how to be a saboteur.

[secret.simon]

Beyond belief; A prediction that the Tories can get a majority of 222!!! Things are really getting out of hands. At this rate, we will need so many pinches of salt, we will all have high blood pressure.

[mkhan2525]

I wouldn't pay too much attention to what the polls says. They haven't been able to predict past events with accuracy. Even the Daily fail admits the polls showing massive Tory lead in the upcoming election is wrong.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... wrong.html

[secret.simon]

Oh, absolutely no doubt about it, the polls have been wrong in the past, especially as regards recent UK polling, in both the 2015 elections and the referendum. Indeed, as I have pointed out earlier, Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has commented negatively on British pollsters. It is not improbable that we may have many under-reported shy Corbynistas, like the shy Tories of 1992 & 2015 and that we may have seriously underestimated the Labour vote.

But still, one needs to be aware of the possible direction of travel. The worry is that people are very confident that their side will win and do not prepare for a victory by the other side. The best example of that is David Cameron/George Osborne's decision not to plan for a leave result, because it would be an absurd result. It is better to be scared and prepared than to be complacent and unprepared.

As regards the Daily Wail, the way they have presented their polls, I suspect that they are worried about potential Conservative voters getting complacent and not bothering to vote and hence underplaying the size of the Tory vote. In a sense, they agree with me in the sentence above about being scared and prepared.

Two Twitter links for people who may be interested in engaging more with these elections.

For those happy to hear about this election, prediction of another additional election in November this year, on the basis that like Labour, the Conservative Party will split on Brexit, within six months.
 
Lib-Dem fight-back plans. Contacts in the Twitter feed.

[secret.simon]

Article in the Times suggesting to Theresa May to make a manifesto commitment to scrap the ECHR as well.

Time to take control of illegal immigration

[secret.simon]

Even the Daily fail admits the polls showing massive Tory lead in the upcoming election is wrong.

Don't bet on a Tory landslide quite yet

I think what the Daily Wail had in mind was a scenario like the one in the article linked to above. It is highly improbable that the Conservatives will get majorities of 100-200 seats, which is what some people have suggested (one person suggested a majority of 222).

It is much more likely that the Conservatives will have a majority of about 70. That is up from the current majority they have of 17, but much less than the wildly over-optimistic 100+ figure bandied about in the press.

Just remember that people who support Brexit will be as motivated to vote as people who oppose it.