Post Brexit Discussion

secret.simon · Post by **secret.simon** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:03 pm

Poland urges ‘new EU treaty’ based on nation states

Poland said today (24 June) that Britain’s vote to leave the EU meant it was time for a “new European treaty” to overhaul the federalist model of closer European political integration.

I think that now there is a possibility that a country will actually leave, it will concentrate minds in the EU and across the capitals. A lot of possibilities will be on the table. While most people are assuming that the rules will be followed, what if the rules are rewritten? Nothing is cast in stone.

Obie · Post by **Obie** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:26 pm

I just don't get boris and other tories politician.

You said you want to leave, now you have it and refusing to issue Article 50 .

Look at the chaos they have brought to the whole union.

The whole of the UK is in turmoil. Shares crashing, currency crashing, Scotland and Northern Ireland breaking.

A good days work for 38 % of the UK voting population.

Scotland must go for referendum ASAP . During this Chaos is the best think..

lurli · Post by **lurli** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:32 pm

Perhaps after seeing the implications, the tenor of messages seems to have softened dramatically, very few people would have thought this was a great thing to do. On the one hand good stuff, but it's becoming even clearer that this brexit is akin to foolishness.

liksah · Post by **liksah** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 5:48 pm

Couples who did not want to move to the UK should at least be happy.

http://bkpk.me/bittersweet-brexit-celebration/

Petaltop · Post by **Petaltop** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:14 pm

Obie wrote:The EU must compel the UK to invoke Article 50 immediately.

How will they do that?

Obie wrote:You cannot have the likes of Borris and Gove having their cake and eating it.

It seems they can.

Obie wrote:If the want out, they must invoke article 50. The cannot continue to hold the EU to ransom.

Again, it seems they can. Did the EU write a timeline to invoke Article 50?

Obie wrote:Now that they voted, the smell the coffee, and dont want to invoke article 50.

Yes they do want out. They have had enough of the EU and wanted control of their own country again.

Obie wrote:British people are are to see that they have been conned. Farage has already told them there will be no 350 million for NHS.

Looking at all the happy faces, they don't feel conned, they feel free. Some people are going to have to learn to be grateful to the Brits for letting them stay, or out they will go

ouflak1 · Post by **ouflak1** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:31 pm

Petaltop wrote:
Obie wrote: Looking at all the happy faces, they don't feel conned, they feel free. Some people are going to have to learn to be grateful to the Brits for letting them stay, or out they will go

Are you referring to us UK citizens who immigrated to this country legally and enjoyed the rights and benefits of EU citizenship as well? Or did you have somebody else in mind?

Obie · Post by **Obie** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:40 pm

Don't attribute that post to me.

I clearly did not type that .

lurli · Post by **lurli** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 6:57 pm

Obie wrote:Don't attribute that post to me.

I clearly did not type that .

I think the poster understood that it wasn't your post, i think he/she was being sarcastic.

secret.simon · Post by **secret.simon** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:05 pm

A lucid post from Prof Mark Elliott of the University of Cambridge of where we are post-Brexit, from a political and constitutional point of view. The whole post is worth a read, but I will reproduce a section as it is pertinent to the topic immediately under discussion.

Third, the likelihood, therefore, is that Brexit will be accomplished under Article 50. That means that — unless matters are wrapped up earlier by mutual agreement — the UK will remain a Member State of the EU for at least two years from the date on which notice of the UK’s intention to leave is served upon the European Council. And that gives rise to the question whether — and, if so, when — notice must be served. As a matter of law, notice does not have to be served — ever — because the outcome of the referendum is not legally binding. The legislation that provided for a referendum to be held said nothing whatever about the effect of the outcome of the referendum, and the result does not place the Government under any legal obligation to secure Brexit — whether by serving notice on the European Council under Article 50 or otherwise. Put another way, the United Kingdom has not, simply by holding an advisory referendum, “decide[d] to withdraw” within the meaning of Article 50. Rather, the will of the people has been expressed through an advisory referendum, and the making of the decision whether to withdraw remains a matter for the Government.

However, to say that the Government is not legally obliged to trigger Brexit is one thing. Political reality is something else entirely. It would, self-evidently, be astonishingly political difficult for the Government to ignore the outcome of the referendum, and there is, in effect, an insuperable political obligation to fire the Article 50 starting-gun. That does not, however, mean that the UK Government must — or should — immediately do so. Given that it is not obliged by UK law or by EU law to start the Article 50 process, it can, if it wishes, bide its time — in order, if nothing else, to take stock and work out who, and by reference to what strategy, the negotiations will be conducted. The UK could, for instance, decline to trigger the Article 50 process until a new Prime Minister takes office in the autumn — which is what David Cameron appeared to envisage would happen in his resignation statement.

The rest of the post also states that EU law continues to apply to the UK until the end of the period envisaged by Article 50 (which could be longer or shorter than two years with the agreement of all 28 current Member-states). As the UK-EU deal only came into force if the UK voted to remain, that means that it is practically guaranteed for there to be no change to the EEA-Route Applications for the next two years at least. I can imagine that a lot of you would be relieved by that development.

Obie · Post by **Obie** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 7:38 pm

It is odd for the UK to hold 50 million people to ransom . It all seems so strange. The whole uncertainly does not affect UK alone, it has impact on the financial market of the other states.

If Prime Minister Johnson in waiting thinks he can use this referendum as a gun in the head of the EU , to get concession and then hold a second referendum, then he is mistaking.

The most decent think to do is, trigger Article 50, approve Scotland's proposal for a new referendum and allow Scotland's referendum to be held before the period of Article 50 elapses.

I felt sorry for Scots, and 75 % of young people like myself, whO were engulfed by the wave of hate.

You go to polling station and you hear some of the venom being used on immigrant . So bad.

With all their hate and muderous instinct, which unfortunately led to the death of an innocent mother of 2 , they should try and do the right thing for once.

Casa · Post by **Casa** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:02 pm

Better hope that the other contender, Mrs May doesn't take the vacant place.

Obie · Post by **Obie** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:04 pm

Casa wrote:Better hope that the other contender, Mrs May doesn't take the vacant place.

That will not be fair. I don't like May very much, but I believe it will be wrong for her to clear a mess that Cameron and to a very large extent Johnson created.

Boris was the initiator. He was expert in inciting the British people, appealing to their worst dearly beloved instinct. Saying Obama hates UK because of his Kenyan ancestory.

Boris and Trump are people with very similar attributes. They are professionals on inciting their Base.

CR001 · Post by **CR001** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:19 pm

Obie wrote:Boris and Trump are people with very similar attributes. They are professionals on inciting their Base.

And they have very similar hairstyles, would make for comical photos together

Obie · Post by **Obie** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 8:21 pm

That is true actually. And they were both born in America.

ILR1980 · Post by **ILR1980** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 9:25 pm

Obie wrote:It is odd for the UK to hold 50 million people to ransom . It all seems so strange. The whole uncertainly does not affect UK alone, it has impact on the financial market of the other states.

If Prime Minister Johnson in waiting thinks he can use this referendum as a gun in the head of the EU , to get concession and then hold a second referendum, then he is mistaking.

The most decent think to do is, trigger Article 50, approve Scotland's proposal for a new referendum and allow Scotland's referendum to be held before the period of Article 50 elapses.

I felt sorry for Scots, and 75 % of young people like myself, whO were engulfed by the wave of hate.

You go to polling station and you hear some of the venom being used on immigrant . So bad.

With all their hate and muderous instinct, which unfortunately led to the death of an innocent mother of 2 , they should try and do the right thing for once.

This process of brexit won't happen overnight and it will take some time for UK to establish new relationships with Europe

yoshi_jp · Post by **yoshi_jp** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 10:47 pm

Having read some rather emotional and judgemental comments on this thread, I feel a very tiny bit unsettled.

I voted "out". Did that make me a person who was so intellectually challenged that he could easily be "incited" by a certain politician whom a few here so passionately dislike?

Do you really think that the majority of our fellow citizens are so stupid? What makes you think that you are any better?

Did my Polish wife somehow become a non-thinking non-entity because she voted "out"?

Just pause for a moment and try to imagine that some people might have voted "leave" for various reasons of their own while being fully aware that the figure of 350 million pounds was a bit dubious, that the "Brexiteers" had no clear onward plan post-exit, and that the career politicians promoting Brexit could quite possibly have less-than-ideal motives? Every person has unique priorities in life. Some believe "Give me liberty or give me death" and some believe ups and downs of FTSE 100 over the next 10 seconds are more important than anything, but the whole point of democracy is that both are equally entitled to vote.

Could some of you please ease off your cavalier attitude a bit? It is becoming too nauseating.

When did Jean Claude Junker and Donald Tusk become beacons of morality?

I would have gracefully accepted the result whether it was of my liking or not. I feel truly honoured and humbled by the experience of taking part in this historic event. Why don't you just respect our collective decision as a nation and stop bad-mouthing?

vinny · Post by **vinny** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:22 pm

Perhaps a leave/stay referendum wasn't the best way of solving the UK's problems?

Obie · Post by **Obie** » Fri Jun 24, 2016 11:26 pm

vinny wrote:Perhaps a leave/stay referendum wasn't the best way of solving the UK's problems?

The difficulty for me, is the problem that UK refusal to formally go, is causing on the EU.

The wish of the Vote leave is not to leave , but to destroy the EU.

Hold the EU to ransom .

Vote leave has no proper plans, they simply want to destroy UK, which they have done a good job of in the last 24 hours, but their main aim is to destroy the EU.

ILR1980 · Post by **ILR1980** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 12:20 am

yoshi_jp wrote:Having read some rather emotional and judgemental comments on this thread, I feel a very tiny bit unsettled.

I voted "out". Did that make me a person who was so intellectually challenged that he could easily be "incited" by a certain politician whom a few here so passionately dislike?

Do you really think that the majority of our fellow citizens are so stupid? What makes you think that you are any better?

Did my Polish wife somehow become a non-thinking non-entity because she voted "out"?

Just pause for a moment and try to imagine that some people might have voted "leave" for various reasons of their own while being fully aware that the figure of 350 million pounds was a bit dubious, that the "Brexiteers" had no clear onward plan post-exit, and that the career politicians promoting Brexit could quite possibly have less-than-ideal motives? Every person has unique priorities in life. Some believe "Give me liberty or give me death" and some believe ups and downs of FTSE 100 over the next 10 seconds are more important than anything, but the whole point of democracy is that both are equally entitled to vote.

Could some of you please ease off your cavalier attitude a bit? It is becoming too nauseating.

When did Jean Claude Junker and Donald Tusk become beacons of morality?

I would have gracefully accepted the result whether it was of my liking or not. I feel truly honoured and humbled by the experience of taking part in this historic event. Why don't you just respect our collective decision as a nation and stop bad-mouthing?

We should respect the decision of majority whether we were agreed or disagreed with them because this is democracy. People should not moan because decisions were not as per their expectation. I

Casa · Post by **Casa** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 1:32 am

yoshi_jp wrote:Having read some rather emotional and judgemental comments on this thread, I feel a very tiny bit unsettled.

I voted "out". Did that make me a person who was so intellectually challenged that he could easily be "incited" by a certain politician whom a few here so passionately dislike?

Do you really think that the majority of our fellow citizens are so stupid? What makes you think that you are any better?

Did my Polish wife somehow become a non-thinking non-entity because she voted "out"?

Just pause for a moment and try to imagine that some people might have voted "leave" for various reasons of their own while being fully aware that the figure of 350 million pounds was a bit dubious, that the "Brexiteers" had no clear onward plan post-exit, and that the career politicians promoting Brexit could quite possibly have less-than-ideal motives? Every person has unique priorities in life. Some believe "Give me liberty or give me death" and some believe ups and downs of FTSE 100 over the next 10 seconds are more important than anything, but the whole point of democracy is that both are equally entitled to vote.

Could some of you please ease off your cavalier attitude a bit? It is becoming too nauseating.

When did Jean Claude Junker and Donald Tusk become beacons of morality?

I would have gracefully accepted the result whether it was of my liking or not. I feel truly honoured and humbled by the experience of taking part in this historic event. Why don't you just respect our collective decision as a nation and stop bad-mouthing?

+1 Well said. We can't claim to be a democratic nation and then complain when democracy is implemented.

vinny · Post by **vinny** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 3:33 am

Andy Borowitz wrote:British lose right to claim that Americans are dumber

Nimitta · Post by **Nimitta** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 7:41 am

ILR1980 wrote: We should respect the decision of majority whether we were agreed or disagreed with them because this is democracy. People should not moan because decisions were not as per their expectation. I

Majoirity? It is ironic that the majority of young people voted to remain and majority of older ones voted out (claiming they have done so for "children and grandchildren"). There they are children and grandchildren saying

"I'm annoyed that baby boomers have messed things up for us again"

"They've voted for something that's not going to really affect them. They're not going to have to deal with the consequences."

"Thank you baby boomers for the last nail in my generation's coffin."

The same in numbers, speaking about respect to the decision of majority:

18-24 - 73% voted to remain
25-34 - 62% voted to remain
35-44% - 52% voted to remain

And who voted to leave?

45-54 - 56% to leave
55-64 - 57% to leave
65+ - 60% to leave

The majority of young people wanted to stay in the EU and now they will have to deal with the mess long after those who voted for Brexit will check out from the planet. I am not saying that older generation shouldn't have the right to decide the future of the country just because they have considerably less time to spend on dealing with the consequences of the decision. That would not be right. But what just happened is deeply wrong either.

Casa · Post by **Casa** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:53 am

Amazing statistics. 0% in the 18-24 demographic voted to leave.

lurli · Post by **lurli** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 8:54 am

yoshi_jp wrote:Having read some rather emotional and judgemental comments on this thread, I feel a very tiny bit unsettled.

I voted "out". Did that make me a person who was so intellectually challenged that he could easily be "incited" by a certain politician whom a few here so passionately dislike?

Do you really think that the majority of our fellow citizens are so stupid? What makes you think that you are any better?

Did my Polish wife somehow become a non-thinking non-entity because she voted "out"?

Just pause for a moment and try to imagine that some people might have voted "leave" for various reasons of their own while being fully aware that the figure of 350 million pounds was a bit dubious, that the "Brexiteers" had no clear onward plan post-exit, and that the career politicians promoting Brexit could quite possibly have less-than-ideal motives? Every person has unique priorities in life. Some believe "Give me liberty or give me death" and some believe ups and downs of FTSE 100 over the next 10 seconds are more important than anything, but the whole point of democracy is that both are equally entitled to vote.

Could some of you please ease off your cavalier attitude a bit? It is becoming too nauseating.

When did Jean Claude Junker and Donald Tusk become beacons of morality?

I would have gracefully accepted the result whether it was of my liking or not. I feel truly honoured and humbled by the experience of taking part in this historic event. Why don't you just respect our collective decision as a nation and stop bad-mouthing?

Your own model of democracy is that you can voice an opinion, but other differing opinions should be silenced because it does necessarily conform with the result of the vote?

I need no lectures on morality from someone like you either, it is perfectly reasonable for people to be disappointed and even despondent after an event such as this , I voted leave but in retrospect, I was wrong to have voted the way I did. Just because you didn't share the views of some posters doesn't give you the right to tell them to ease off, after all as you said it is "democracy" Chillout, emotions are raw at the moment.

secret.simon · Post by **secret.simon** » Sat Jun 25, 2016 9:44 am

I agree with other interlocuters on these forums that we need to be careful of the language that is being used in these discussions. The country is divided pretty evenly and both sides have intellectually valid points of view that should be respected. Branding one side dearly beloved or xenophobic does not add any value or depth to a discussion.

Given that half the country has expressed an opinion that is relatively hostile to immigration, I think that we, as migrants and families of migrants, need to reflect on it and address these concerns, not get on the high horse of "rights". It is the society around you that grants rights, not scraps of paper.

Returning to the topic under discussion, I do not think that the UK will actually ever invoke Article 50. Brexit has already caused the EU and its other member states to reevaluate their priorities. Negotiations are already underway across the EU. Germany is worried about further fragmentation and the German and French foreign ministers will be presenting a paper today on "allowing space" in the EU for countries who do not want further integration.

As for the newer members, the Czech Prime Minister has raised the possibility of a Crezit. A former Polish Prime Minster has argued for a looser European union of nation states.

Elections ar due across the EU in the next year and a half. Spain goes to the polls tomorrow, France in May 2017 and Germany in August 2017. The governments in these coutries will face equally strident calls for a lesser EU now. That may change their attitude towards Brexit negotiations.

It is thus entirely possible that we remain in the EU, but that the EU is forced to change significantly. In a sense, this is a test of the EU as well, as it has to decide whether it is a political, pragmatic entity open to negotiations and compromise or it is an ideologically driven one.

My opinion is that the Brexit negotiations will take place under Article 48, which is basically an amendment of the original treaties of the EU. That would allow the UK to have a special status in the EU. Being written into the EU treaties, it would need to be ratified by all the 28 countries of the EU and the European Parliament. But that would be the case for a Brexit deal under Article 50 anyway, so both have the same level of difficulty. Article 48 was the basis of the Treaty that allowed Greenland to leave the then EEC in 1985, so there is historical precedence for that possibility.

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