Application time Analysis

[atc]

I decided to do a bit of analysis with the info people have posted in the 2017 & 2018 timeline threads

Of 43 applications in 2017 the average time from application to approval was 10.44 months with the shortest being 4 months and the longest 18. A backlog is visible in the last quarter of 2017.

In 2018 there are 15 applications that reached approval with an average time from application to approval of 6.93 months. The shortest wait of 3 months and longest being 9 months. All applications from 2018 were approved 1 month before or at the same time as the clearing of the backlog of Q4 2017.

The reduction in the average time and the processing of the backlog coincides with a news report on 1st January 2018 that 240 additional clerical officers had been hired to deal with the increase in applications. It’s clearly visible that from January 18 onward a significant reduction in application times can be seen.

There is no discernible difference in approval times for the different types of application (EU, Non-EU, Marriage).

Approvals occurred in:
Sept 17
Feb/Mar 18
Sept 18

If this trend is to continue, we should expect another round of approvals within the next month or so.

My interest in this?
I submitted my application early last month as an EU citizen (UK) with 5 years of residency in the state. I’m afraid I’m one of the guys that’s causing the increase in applications due to very silly people in the UK voting for Brexit.

I hope people find this useful or interesting.

[Statusquo73]

It is very interesting and useful post. Thank you so much for sharing it.
I am waiting for an approval approx 2 years.

You may not make it for this ceremony giving that you applied last month. But I hope I am wrong and you will get it.

In my opinion most of the people should hear from inis this in March.

[markem]

I'd guess a lot of people on this forum have their own way of tracking/analysing... and guessing how long their application will take. For individuals, the time it will take to get an approval is unpredictable, but in aggregate the information is interesting.

Have done some analysis myself. The charts below is from 135 applications (of all types). Usual disclaimer that it is my interpretation of self-reported data, which is likely to be error prone.

This chart shows cumulative approvals over time. 75% of applications are approved within 300 days. I've found that EU and FBR applications are shorter than this, Non-EU and Marriage applications longer.


Second chart shows the timeline for different application types (and where I am!). Max Waiting is generally the longest a recently active person has been waiting.

[PettteM]

It is very interesting and useful post. Thank you so much for sharing it.
I am waiting for an approval approx 2 years.

You may not make it for this ceremony giving that you applied last month. But I hope I am wrong and you will get it.

In my opinion most of the people should hear from inis this in March.

That is not normal. Get in touch with a solicitor if need be.

[markem]

I've done further analysis on the data I collect from this forum. For those who watch the timeline threads closely, you probably know this intuitively, but I think it's always helpful to back up intuition with data. With the recent wave of approvals, there is quite a bit more data to look at. In total, I've got a list of 302 applications (both approved and waiting).

How representative are the timelines from this forum?
I estimate 29 people who post here will attend the next ceremony. Assuming 3,000 get citizenship at that ceremony, it's just shy of 1%.

Perhaps, there is a bit of selection bias - what I mean is that, we post here because we have concerns about our applications, because they are not 'straightforward' cases. Therefore, our timelines are longer than average. The Department continues to claim that straightforward cases receive decisions within 6 months. On there I've found that just 28% of applications get approval in that time (or 32% within 200 days, as in the chart below).



Are approval timelines increasing?
The chart below shows an increase in days to approval for several categories of application from a low in 2015. 2018 appears deceptively low as most applications haven't been approved yet, so as they are approved, the average will increase. 2011 is deceptively high due to few data points.


When are most approvals are received?
While there are some approvals in every month, the majority are received in the month preceding a citizenship ceremony. Therefore March and October are busy, while December is very quiet (only 1 approval received in December 2018, before that in December 2013 & December 2012).


How long from approval to ceremony?
In most cases, approvals are received a month or two before a ceremony. There's an average of 58 days from receiving approval to participating in a ceremony. Recent timelines show the last approval for a ceremony is received around 24 calendar days before the ceremony.

[markem]

In total, I've got a list of 302 applications (both approved and waiting).

The charts above update automatically whenever I add new data to the set, so the numbers in text are now out of sync with the charts. Now based on 323 applications.

[niccim]

I decided to do a bit of analysis with the info people have posted in the 2017 & 2018 timeline threads

Of 43 applications in 2017 the average time from application to approval was 10.44 months with the shortest being 4 months and the longest 18. A backlog is visible in the last quarter of 2017.

In 2018 there are 15 applications that reached approval with an average time from application to approval of 6.93 months. The shortest wait of 3 months and longest being 9 months. All applications from 2018 were approved 1 month before or at the same time as the clearing of the backlog of Q4 2017.

The reduction in the average time and the processing of the backlog coincides with a news report on 1st January 2018 that 240 additional clerical officers had been hired to deal with the increase in applications. It’s clearly visible that from January 18 onward a significant reduction in application times can be seen.

There is no discernible difference in approval times for the different types of application (EU, Non-EU, Marriage).

Approvals occurred in:
Sept 17
Feb/Mar 18
Sept 18

If this trend is to continue, we should expect another round of approvals within the next month or so.

My interest in this?
I submitted my application early last month as an EU citizen (UK) with 5 years of residency in the state. I’m afraid I’m one of the guys that’s causing the increase in applications due to very silly people in the UK voting for Brexit.

I hope people find this useful or interesting.

Very interesting! I've been obsessing over the board all day and have been working on drawing some conclusions myself. Thanks for this. I was starting to see too many people waiting for a year and starting to feel a bit hopeless

[niccim]

I've done further analysis on the data I collect from this forum. For those who watch the timeline threads closely, you probably know this intuitively, but I think it's always helpful to back up intuition with data. With the recent wave of approvals, there is quite a bit more data to look at. In total, I've got a list of 302 applications (both approved and waiting).

How representative are the timelines from this forum?
I estimate 29 people who post here will attend the next ceremony. Assuming 3,000 get citizenship at that ceremony, it's just shy of 1%.

Perhaps, there is a bit of selection bias - what I mean is that, we post here because we have concerns about our applications, because they are not 'straightforward' cases. Therefore, our timelines are longer than average. The Department continues to claim that straightforward cases receive decisions within 6 months. On there I've found that just 28% of applications get approval in that time (or 32% within 200 days, as in the chart below).



Are approval timelines increasing?
The chart below shows an increase in days to approval for several categories of application from a low in 2015. 2018 appears deceptively low as most applications haven't been approved yet, so as they are approved, the average will increase. 2011 is deceptively high due to few data points.


When are most approvals are received?
While there are some approvals in every month, the majority are received in the month preceding a citizenship ceremony. Therefore March and October are busy, while December is very quiet (only 1 approval received in December 2018, before that in December 2013 & December 2012).


How long from approval to ceremony?
In most cases, approvals are received a month or two before a ceremony. There's an average of 58 days from receiving approval to participating in a ceremony. Recent timelines show the last approval for a ceremony is received around 24 calendar days before the ceremony.

Wow, thanks for that! Really interesting data

[sembe]

Wow...you guys are good.

[Tosbuddy]

Hi all,i got my approval letter last year October 2018,am yet to receive a letter for the ceremony,am really confused, did any one face this

[littlerr]

Hi all,i got my approval letter last year October 2018,am yet to receive a letter for the ceremony,am really confused, did any one face this

Letters get lost occasionally. You should definitely call them or write them a letter requesting for an update.

[Tosbuddy]

Thanks for reply,will do just that

[markem]

I asked a TD to ask this question on application processing times. Aside from the usual waffle about citizenship being a privilege (etc, etc), I did get the information I wanted, which is that...

... the average processing time from the date an application was received on, to the date a decision was made was 6.7 months in 2016, 7.2 months in 2017 and 6.5 months in 2018.

[usczkat]

Does that time frame seem correct to you for 2018 processing? There are a number of 2018 applicants that are still waiting, mine was received and acknowledged in August 2018, no word since then for me.

[markem]

Does that time frame seem correct to you for 2018 processing? There are a number of 2018 applicants that are still waiting, mine was received and acknowledged in August 2018, no word since then for me.

From your other posts I think your application is for Foreign Birth Registration, therefore the stats on the page are not relevant for you.

That aside, a further note on the numbers. The time between when an application is received and when an application is decided can only be known when the decision is made. If there are a lot of undecided applications (there are over 14,000 "on hand" at the moment, the highest in 5 years) the processing time won't properly reflect how long people are actually waiting.

The other thing is that the time of 6.5 months refers to 2018. It's not clear if that is for applications made in 2018, or decided in 2018. My guess is that it is the latter.

[usczkat]

Thanks, I am probably a little confused here still, I am not sure what else this application time analysis was for, but I did send in a FBR application in Aug of 2018... not sure which that would be in response to your last point "made or decided", think it is the made, and not the decided also!. I'll keep looking around. Thanks again.

[markem]

I am not sure what else this application time analysis was for

Citizenship by Naturalisation on the basis of residency, and marriage/civil partnership.

[usczkat]

Thanks, I see now.

[markem]

Updating this thread with fresh charts based on posts to the timeline threads. All these update automatically, whenever I refresh data from the threads. If anyone has questions, I have a bunch of data now (470 applications), so I can take a stab at answering anything you want to know. Obviously it's not completely scientific, but I like to think it is representative.

Firstly, after a few quiet months due to the high court ruling, approvals are back! The chart is showing 8 in November at time of posting, I expect this will shoot up in coming days.


How long does it take to get approved? Your mileage may vary. Currently shows that approx 65% are approved within a year. The longest so far took nearly 1,600 days from application to approval.


How many people on here are in my situation? This shows applications by year and stage.


How long does it take to get an application number? This year the process seems to have changed. Passports are getting returned almost immediately, but application acknowledgement (and a reference number) are taking much longer to issue

[atc]

Thanks markem. Your analysis has always been very interesting to read and very detailed.

Better than my original attempt.

[Bealtaine]

Oo la la! What a treat! Thank you so much for the fabulous stats!
Congrats on your approval xx
Hope to be in line next

[markem]

Thanks markem. Your analysis has always been very interesting to read and very detailed.

Better than my original attempt.

Thanks! I hope you don't mind that I hijacked your thread with all this. Congratulations on your approval.

[atc]

Thanks markem. Your analysis has always been very interesting to read and very detailed.

Better than my original attempt.

Thanks! I hope you don't mind that I hijacked your thread with all this. Congratulations on your approval.

I don't mind at all. I hope you will come back every now and then to update the stats now that you have been approved.

Congrats. We should have a celebratory pint in Killarney.

[PD9]

Hi Markem, Excellent and very useful analysis - a little off topic (can't PM), could you let me know what analytics tool you are using to create your charts? Doesn't look like excel! Smart graphs.

[markem]

Hi Markem, Excellent and very useful analysis - a little off topic (can't PM), could you let me know what analytics tool you are using to create your charts? Doesn't look like excel! Smart graphs.

It's just Google Sheets. I'm publishing them as images (which update based on latest data) but you can also publish as interactives, which you can click and hover on.